Bitcoin taps $63K on Juneteenth as July Fed rate-hike odds near 40%

Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $63,000 on Friday as markets adjusted to geopolitical and macro changes.Key points:Bitcoin takes a time-out near week-to-date lows after a broadly hawkish Fed interest-rate meeting.US-Iran tensions slowly resurface with the Strait of Hormuz oil route in the firing line.A trader suggests that a "black swan" event could still come in this Bitcoin bear market.BTC price lack upside momentum after hawkish Fed cuesData from TradingView showed BTC/USD locked in a tight trading range on low time frames after dropping to eight-day lows.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewWeakness had entered after the US Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate decision, which sparked a broader risk-asset comedown.Wednesday’s meeting on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was the first for new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, who avoided giving traders dovish signals on future policy.“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy,” he said in a statement after a unanimous board decision to keep rates at current levels. “The Committee will deliver price stability.”Warsh’s tone was unusual, as expectations had seen him being accommodating to US President Donald Trump’s insistence on rate cuts. He also cut the FOMC statement length considerably, using drier language than former chair, Jerome Powell.“We will have far less information going forward,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter reacted in a post on X, noting that Warsh had also “dropped” its forward guidance.“He even hinted that the 'dot plot' could be changed or eliminated along with all forms of Fed communication, such as the policy statement and press conferences. In other words, the market will now have less Fed outlook which means more uncertainty.”Fed target rate probabilities for July 29 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupThe latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed markets pricing in a near 40% chance of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in late July.Bitcoin "black swan" back on the radarWith US markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday, meanwhile, Bitcoin and crypto were alone in digesting the latest developments in the US-Iran war.Related: Bitcoin tipped for Q3 'macro bottom' near $50K as major liquidity grab loomsDespite signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU), the two sides appeared far from aligned on the future road map, with Iran once more eyeing the newly reopened Strait of Hormuz oil route.Citing Bloomberg, Kobeissi reported that traffic “cannot cross the Strait of Hormuz without its permission.”“The MoU signed with the US only says that transit through the Strait of Hormuz would be free for the duration of its 60 day term,” it explained on Friday. “It appears Iran is preparing for long-term control of Hormuz.”CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewWTI crude oil continued to circle $75 per barrel on the day after hitting its lowest levels since early March.Amid the lull in risk-asset volatility, trader and analyst Rekt Capital hinted that Bitcoin bulls’ true test is yet to come.“There tends to be a Black Swan event in the second half of Bitcoin Bear Markets. Lesson there,” he told X followers.This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.