Forex & Trading
Currency pairs, central banks, and macro flows.
ADP weekly NER Pulse 16,500 vs 19,750 last week
For the four weeks ending July 4, 2026, US private employers added an average of 16,500 jobs a week. Hiring slowed for the fourth straight week. The numbers are preliminary and could change as new data is added. What is it? Three times a month, Main Street Macro releases the NER Pulse, an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. These releases are seasonally adjusted and have a two-week lag to allow for more complete and accurate estimates of real-time employment trends. At the beginning of each month, we publish the National Employment Report, which is built on a reference week that includes the 12th day of the month. We do not publish the NER Pulse during NER release weeks. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
The USD is mixed vs the major currencies. In the kickstart video, I outline the key technical levels in play
The USD is mixed to little changed vs the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. In the video above, I speak to the technicals that are helping to drive the price action for each. All traders should understand the bias, the risk and the targets for trades. I define those levels for each and explain and show why from a technical perspective in the video. Kickstart the North American session by understanding the roadmap. The disagreement marks an early political challenge for Burnham just days into office, with investors likely to watch closely for more details in the upcoming budget. While UK gilt markets have remained relatively calm so far, questions over fiscal discipline and government spending could become a larger theme if a clear funding source is not identified. On the economic front, the UK labor market delivered a mixed report, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.9%, slightly better than the 5.0% expected. Employment growth surprised to the upside, rising by 147,000 in May, but June payrolls slipped by 4,000, extending the modest decline seen this year. Wage growth continued to cool, with total earnings slowing to 4.3% and regular pay holding at 3.4%. Overall, the data suggest the labor market is gradually softening but not enough to force an immediate policy response from the Bank of England, especially with renewed energy price pressures adding to the inflation outlook. Germany's July ZEW survey showed improving optimism about the economy, with the expectations index jumping to 26.3 from 10.5, its strongest reading since February and well above forecasts. Current conditions remained deeply negative at -77.6, highlighting that businesses are still facing a difficult environment. The improvement reflects stronger domestic demand and better prospects for exporters, but confidence continues to be tempered by uncertainty surrounding the renewed U.S.-Iran conflict and higher oil prices. The data reinforce expectations that the ECB will remain focused on inflation risks while monitoring whether the recovery can withstand geopolitical headwinds. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney condemned the move as a violation of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, arguing that Canada's previous trade measures merely matched earlier U.S. actions. Carney said Canada remains prepared to negotiate a resolution and modernize the trade agreement, while emphasizing that his government will take whatever steps are necessary to protect Canadian workers, businesses, and families. Markets have begun to refocus on the potential economic impact as trade tensions between the two countries escalate. At the same time, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels threatened to expand the conflict by imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising the risk of further disruptions to global energy supplies. Despite the escalation, negotiations for a 10-day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran are continued to be brokered by Pakistan. Markets continue to balance the rising geopolitical risks against hopes that diplomacy can prevent a broader regional conflict. Crude oil prices are trading up $1.37 at $83.80. Gold is trading up $45 or 1.13% have $4054.60. Silver is trading up $2.25 or 4% have $58.74 Bitcoin is trading up $971 and $66,304 Looking at the premarket four US stocks, the futures are implying higher levels Dow industrial average +130 points NASDAQ index +360 points S&P index +22 points Looking at the US that market, mixed a two-year down 0.6 basis points at 4.208%. The 10 year is up 0.3 basis points at 4.601%.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
investingLive European FX news wrap: UK jobs beat, focus stays on Middle East
It was a pretty calm session with limited data and news flow. The main highlight was the UK employment report which showed some resilience in the three months to May, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.9% and employment rising by 147,000. Total pay growth eased to 4.3%, suggesting wage pressures continue to moderate. The market reaction was muted given that the data didn't change anything in terms of interest rate expectations. Iran said that any decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will depend on security conditions, offering no timeline for restoring normal shipping through the waterway. Tehran will keep the strait closed at least until a potential ceasefire is secured. The German ZEW economic sentiment index surged to 26.3 from 10.5, well above forecasts, reflecting growing optimism that the government's reform agenda will support the recovery. The survey also noted that uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict and oil prices continues to pose a significant risk to the economic outlook despite the improving sentiment. . It goes without saying that a ceasefire would be positive for risk sentiment, while a full-scale war would have a very negative impact on the markets. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
Market outlook today: Gold and Bitcoin lead as key breakout levels come into focus
At the time of this market review, precious metals and major cryptocurrencies were producing some of the clearest bullish signals. US stock indices were also recovering, although several important resistance levels still stood between a rebound and a more convincing bullish continuation. Can the US stock index recovery continue? S&P 500 futures recovered from support and turned higher. A sustained move above the previous high near 7,550 could open a path toward 7,600. Another rejection from 7,550, however, would leave the recovery vulnerable. The Dow Jones also recovered after briefly trading below support. For the Dow Jones cash index, 52,150 is the main bullish confirmation level. Acceptance above it would suggest that buyers are regaining control. Educational insight: A market touching resistance is not the same as breaking it. Acceptance generally means price remains above the level for a meaningful period and successfully defends it during a pullback. Are gold and silver still bullish? Gold has broken above an important resistance structure extending from its April high. The 4,040-4,045 area could now act as support if price returns to test it. Holding above that zone would preserve the bullish structure. Sustained trade back below it would warn that the breakout may have failed, particularly if buyers cannot quickly reclaim the area. Silver also defended major longer-term support before turning higher. Two additional metals are approaching important confirmation levels: Platinum: A sustained move above approximately $1,710 would strengthen the case for a larger advance. Palladium: Buyers need to clear approximately $1,375 before the broader outlook becomes more convincingly bullish. A useful concept here is the support-resistance flip. When price breaks above resistance, traders often watch whether the same area becomes support during the next pullback. If it does, the breakout gains credibility. If it does not, the move may have been a temporary overshoot. What levels matter for Bitcoin and Ethereum? Ethereum has cleared an important longer-term resistance area, placing approximately $2,150 on the map as the next potential upside objective. Bitcoin also looks constructive after defending major support near $57,000. With price recently around $65,500, the $64,000 area becomes an important short-term reference: Holding above $64,000 supports bullish continuation. Sustained trade below $64,000 would weaken the breakout. A failed breakdown followed by a quick recovery above $64,000 could show that buyers are still active. Can crude oil break through resistance? Crude oil has recovered toward possible resistance near $90, while Brent crude faces a comparable test around $95. Acceptance above these areas would improve the bullish outlook. Rejection, especially after only a brief move through resistance, could lead to another pullback. Round numbers such as $90 and $95 often attract additional activity because traders use them for entries, exits and option positioning. That does not make them automatic turning points, but it can increase volatility around the initial test. Why does cocoa remain vulnerable? Cocoa is one of the clearer bearish exceptions in this market review. Price rejected overhead resistance and could revisit the $5,000 area. A temporary move below that level is also possible if selling pressure accelerates. The important distinction is whether cocoa merely touches $5,000 or begins spending time below it. A quick recovery could indicate that sellers failed to establish control, while sustained trade underneath would reinforce the bearish case. These levels may refer to different instruments, including futures, cash indices and spot markets. Prices can vary between platforms, contracts and CFDs, so readers should confirm the corresponding levels on the instrument they trade. This analysis is educational and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell. This article was written by Itai Levitan for FinanceMagnates.com at investinglive.com.
Eurozone banks tighten lending standards further as geopolitical risks weigh on credit conditions
Full report Banks reported a moderate tightening of credit standards for corporate loans (net 7%), as well as for housing loans (9%) and consumer credit (12%). The main drivers were weaker risk tolerance and higher perceived credit risks. Banks expect lending standards to tighten further across all loan categories in the third quarter. Banks also tightened overall lending terms and conditions, primarily through higher interest rates, while reporting an increase in the share of rejected loan applications across all borrower groups, particularly for consumer credit. On the demand side, corporate loan demand edged higher (net 3%), supported by financing needs for inventories, working capital, debt refinancing and investment by large firms. The increase was stronger than banks had anticipated. By contrast, demand for housing loans fell sharply (net -15%), weighed down by weaker consumer confidence, higher borrowing costs and a softer housing market outlook. Demand for consumer credit also declined slightly (net -2%). Bank lending tightening is a drag on euro area's growth outlook amid a hawkish ECB and geopolitical uncertainty. If the situation in the Middle East doesn't improve quickly, growth risks might soon replace inflation worries and weigh on Eurozone assets. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
What are the main events for today?
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight was the report. The data was mostly in line with expectations although a bit on the soft side in terms of wage growth, which is a welcome news for the BoE. Overall, the data didn't change anything for monetary policy expectations, so the market reaction was limited. Looking ahead, we will get the German ZEW economic sentiment index which is expected at 15.3 vs 10.5 prior. The data won't change anything for the ECB which is expected to hold rates steady at the upcoming meeting. Therefore, the market reaction will likely be muted. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, we just have the weekly US ADP employment change. This was a market moving report when it was first released back in October 2025 but the market forgot about it quickly after it became clear the US labour market stabilised. The focus will remain on US-Iran headlines as . It goes without saying that a ceasefire would be positive for risk sentiment, while a full-scale war would have a very negative impact on the markets. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
UK unemployment rate holds steady in May, payrolls decline again in June
May ILO unemployment rate 4.9% vs 5.0% expected Prior 4.9% May employment change 147k vs 80k expected Prior 100k May average weekly earnings +4.3% vs +4.5% 3m/y expected Prior +4.4% May average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.4% vs +3.4% 3m/y expected Prior +3.4% June payrolls change -4k Prior 2k; revised to 3k . And that remains the number one caveat that ONS is pinning on their labour market report this month. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
New Zealand Q2 CPI 4.1% y/y (expected 4.0%) and 1.5% q/q (expected 1.4%)
I'll have more to come on this separately. For now, just the numebrs! New Zealand Q2 CPI 4.1% y/y expected 4.0%, prior 3.1% 1.5% q/q expected 1.4%, prior 0.9% Non-tradeables +3.4% y/y and +0.6% q/q Tradeables +2.7% q/q Earlier: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
investingLive Americas FX news wrap 20 Jul:
US stocks began the week on a positive note, but investors became increasingly cautious as the trading session progressed. Optimism from early gains faded after reports pointed to rising U.S. military activity in the Middle East, fueling concerns that the conflict involving Iran could broaden. Those headlines helped lift oil prices, pushed Treasury yields higher, and prompted investors to reduce risk late in the U.S. session. The Canadian dollar weakened following the release, with USDCAD rising 0.35%. The pair moved back above its falling 100-hour moving average at 1.40384 and is trading near session highs around 1.4070. The next key technical target comes in at the falling 200-hour moving average near 1.4094. In the United States, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined by 0.2%, slightly weaker than expected, partially reversing gains from the prior two months. Weak consumer expectations and softer building permits weighed on the index, highlighting signs of slowing momentum in the economy. Even so, the Conference Board continues to expect the U.S. economy to expand in 2026, supported by strong business investment tied to artificial intelligence and gradually improving inflation trends. European equities finished the day mixed, supported by early optimism over global growth prospects and hopes that diplomatic efforts in the Middle East could prevent a broader regional conflict. On Wall Street, the major indices followed a very different path. Stocks opened sharply higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up as much as 268 points, the S&P 500 higher by 55.53 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 295.56 points at session highs. However, buyers gradually lost control as geopolitical concerns intensified throughout the afternoon. Rising Treasury yields and higher energy prices added to the pressure, leaving the Dow and S&P 500 in negative territory by the close while the Nasdaq surrendered most of its earlier advance. Strength in AI and semiconductor shares, led by Credo Technology Group (CRDO) and Lumentum Holdings (LITE), helped cushion technology losses, while Merck was among the weakest performers in the Dow ( for a review) In the commodity markets, after trading between $79.58 and $84.60 during a volatile session. Early reports of a possible cease-fire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz briefly pressured prices lower, but renewed concerns over expanding military activity and the potential for supply disruptions ultimately drove oil back toward its highs. The Middle East remained the dominant macro story. Reports that the United States is increasing its military presence in Israel—including additional aerial refueling aircraft and logistical support—heightened fears that the conflict with Iran could broaden despite ongoing diplomatic efforts. The renewed uncertainty kept energy markets on edge and ultimately became the catalyst that erased much of the day's earlier optimism in global equity markets. Treasury yields moved higher across the curve, reflecting renewed concerns about inflation (higher oil) and reduced expectations for near-term Fed easing. 2-Year:4.2106% (+3.9 bps) 5-Year:4.3230% (+5.0 bps) 10-Year:4.5937% (+5.3 bps) 30-Year:5.1145% (+5.1 bps) Bottom Line: The day began with optimism fueled by improving inflation trends and resilient global equities, but ended with investors once again focused on geopolitical risk. Rising oil prices, higher Treasury yields, and concerns over the Middle East shifted the market narrative from "risk-on" to caution, leaving traders looking to incoming geopolitical headlines for the next directional catalyst. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
CBS News: Nearly 100 U.S. Troops injured in Iranian attacks. Most return to duty
CBS News is reporting that nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured in Iranian attacks on multiple military bases across the Middle East since July 7. According to U.S. officials, most of the injuries were minor concussions or traumatic brain injuries, and 96% of those affected have already returned to duty. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the injured service members remain "determined to get back in the fight," adding that additional updates will be provided through the Defense Casualty Analysis System. The figures underscore the growing toll of recent regional tensions, even as the vast majority of injured personnel have resumed their missions. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Axios: Trump is focusing on making Iran pay for violations of MOU and recent US deaths
Why it matters: The comments reinforce the view that while diplomacy has not been abandoned, the U.S. is maintaining a strategy of maximum pressure. For financial markets, that keeps geopolitical risk elevated, particularly for crude oil, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and broader risk sentiment. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Trump: Iran will pay for killing American soldiers many times over
Back from the World Cup where he posed with the championship team Spain as they lifted the World Cup Trophy, Trump is on TruthSocial saying that: Iran will pay for killing American Soldies many times over. Isreal's Netanyhu "will not be arrested, in any way, shape or form while in the United States of America". There had also been reports that Netanyahu hoped to meet President Trump during the visit, but White House officials indicated that no meeting had been formally scheduled, and the uncertainty ultimately contributed to the trip not going ahead. Tuesday, July 28, 2026 – Washington, D.C.: A memorial service will be held to honor Graham's service in the U.S. Senate and his national legacy. Wednesday, July 29, 2026 – South Carolina: Memorial services will be held in Columbia, the state capital, and in Pickens County, where Graham grew up and began his political career. As of the latest announcements, officials have not released the specific times or venues for the services. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
GBPUSD break the 200 hour moving average and moves toward a cluster of technical targets
The first important technical victory came when the pair moved below its 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.34585. That moving average had been acting as a near-term barometer for the short-term trend in the Asian early European market, and once the price slipped beneath it, sellers used the break as confirmation to increase downside pressure. The selling did not stop there. Momentum continued to build, allowing the pair to extend below the 200-hour moving average at 1.34236. Breaking beneath both of these widely watched moving averages strengthens the bearish technical bias and suggests that sellers have regained control of the near-term trend. For traders holding short positions, those two moving averages now become the close lines of risk. As long as the price remains below the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, sellers maintain the technical advantage. A move back above either level would begin to weaken the bearish outlook, while a recovery above both would force traders to reassess the downside bias. The next major test comes just below current trading levels. The GBPUSD is approaching a significant cluster of technical support centered near 1.3398. This area is noteworthy because it combines several important technical references into one price zone. Specifically, it includes the 100-day moving average, the 200-day moving average, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the June 24 low. When multiple technical indicators converge in the same area, that zone often attracts increased buying and selling interest, making it an important battleground between bulls and bears. If sellers are able to force the price below this support cluster, it would represent another meaningful technical victory and should increase downside momentum. Below 1.3398, the next target comes at a rising trend line near 1.3370, which has supported the broader advance over recent weeks. A break below that trend line would expose the 50% midpoint retracement of the June 24 rally at 1.33483. Reaching—and ultimately breaking—those levels would signal that the correction is evolving into a much deeper retracement and would likely encourage additional selling pressure. On the other hand, if buyers successfully defend the support cluster near 1.3398, the pair could settle into another period of consolidation. In that scenario, traders would likely view the 200-hour moving average near 1.3424 as the first layer of resistance, while the confluence of support near 1.3398 serves as the floor. Until one side wins that battle, the market may continue to oscillate between those technical boundaries as buyers attempt to stabilize the decline and sellers look for another opportunity to extend the move lower. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
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US yields are pushing to new highs and along with it the US dollar
US rates are trading higher on the day and so is the US dollar. Looking at the yield curve: 2 year yield is at 4.216% up 4.5 basis points. 5 year yield is at 4.316%, up 4.3 basis points 10 year yield is at 4.581%, up 4.1 basis points 30 year yield is that 5.096%, up 3.2 basis points. The 2 year yield moved to a low on Friday at 4.11% before starting the move back to the upside. Technically the price is back above its 100 and 200 hour moving averages near 4.187%. The high yield from last Wednesday at 4.215 is the next target. The high yield 4 July is at 4.297%. The rebound in yields comes as inflation concerns remain firmly in focus. Crude oil briefly plunged to $79.58 following reports of a potential cease-fire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but those losses were quickly erased. Oil has since rebounded to around $81.87, leaving it little changed on the day and keeping pressure on inflation expectations. At the consumer level, the national average price for gasoline, according to AAA, has climbed back above $4.00 per gallon, up sharply from approximately $2.98 just before the conflict began on February 28. Higher energy costs continue to complicate the inflation outlook and reinforce market expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates higher for longer. Looking at the US dollar, it is responding to the higher yields by pushing the going back to the upside. EURUSD: The EURUSD has now broken below both its 100-hour moving average (1.1439) and 200-hour moving average (1.1427), shifting the near-term technical bias back to the downside. As long as the price remains below these key moving averages, sellers retain the advantage. The next downside target comes in at Wednesday's low of 1.1407. A break below that level would increase bearish momentum and open the door for a move toward last week's low at 1.13775, which represents the next key support level for traders to watch. USDJPY: The USDJPY is pushing back above the key swing area between 162.399 and 162.510, with buyers now retesting the Asian session high at 162.57. That former resistance zone has become the near-term risk level, as buyers can define their risk against 162.40. Earlier in the session, sellers briefly forced the pair below both the 100-hour moving average (162.269) and the 200-hour moving average (162.232), but downside momentum quickly faded. The pair found support at 162.19 before rebounding sharply, signaling that buyers remain firmly in control as long as the price stays above the reclaimed swing area. A sustained break above 162.57 would increase the bullish momentum and shift the focus toward higher upside targets. USDCHF: The USDCHF is trading at a fresh session high and continuing to pull away from both its 100-hour moving average (0.8078) and 200-hour moving average (0.8083). Those moving averages now represent an important support zone and the key risk level for buyers looking for a continuation to the upside. As long as the price remains above those averages, the bullish bias stays intact. The next upside target comes in at Wednesday's high of 0.81139. A break above that level would shift the focus toward last week's high at 0.81509, the pair's highest level since June 20, 2025, and just above the previous July 2025 high near 0.8150. A move through that area would strengthen the bullish technical outlook even further. As Treasury yields pushed higher, stocks lost some of their earlier momentum—a relationship that often plays out as rising yields increase borrowing costs and reduce the relative appeal of equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped into negative territory, down 0.29% on the day. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain in positive territory, but both have retreated well off their session highs. The Nasdaq is currently up 130 points (+0.51%), after earlier gaining as much as 295 points. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is higher by 20 points (+0.30%), down from its intraday peak gain of 55.5 points. The pullback highlights how the rise in yields has tempered the earlier risk-on sentiment in equities. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
US leading index for June -0.2% versus -0.1% estimate
Prior month 0.1% Leading economic index -0.2% versus -0.1% estimate Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board said: “In June, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined and partially reversed gains registered in May and April. While some components of the LEI were little changed, the largest positive contribution from the yield spread, followed by marginal positive input from the remaining financial components, were not enough to offset weak consumer expectations and a drop in building permits across most of its categories. Despite the recent decline, the LEI’s six- and twelve-month growth rates, while negative, were stable. Consumer spending is weakening, but strong business investment related to AI is expected to support economic activity while inflation continues to improve. The Conference Board raised its forecast from 1.8% to 1.9% y/y GDP growth for 2026.” Looking at the coincident and lagging indicators from the conference Board: The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.2% in June to 114.6, matching the 0.2% increase recorded in May. The CEI increased 0.4% during the first half of 2026, slightly stronger than the 0.3% gain in the previous six months. All four components of the CEI—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—contributed positively in June. The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) was unchanged at 120.5 in June after slipping 0.1% in May. Despite the flat June reading, the LAG advanced 1.1% during the first half of 2026, reversing the 0.1% decline recorded in the second half of 2025. Overall, the data suggest current economic activity remained on a steady upward path in June, while leading signs from the lagging index point to improved economic momentum compared with late 2025. The Conference Board's June data paint a picture of an economy that continues to expand, but at a modest pace. The Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.2%, a weaker result than the -0.1% expected, partially reversing gains from the prior two months. The decline reflects softer consumer expectations and weaker building permits, signaling that consumer-driven growth and the housing sector remain areas of concern. However, improving financial conditions, easing inflation, and robust business investment tied to artificial intelligence are helping to offset those headwinds, prompting The Conference Board to raise its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.9% from 1.8%. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which measures current economic conditions, rose 0.2% for a second straight month as all four of its components—including employment, income, industrial production, and sales—improved, indicating that the economy remains on solid footing today. The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) was unchanged in June but continues to trend higher over the first half of the year, suggesting that underlying economic momentum has improved compared with late 2025. Overall, the report points to continued, moderate economic growth rather than an imminent recession, with AI-related business investment helping to offset softer consumer demand and housing activity. The index has also been consistently negative for years suggesting a recession is just around that corner which has never happened. As a result, the market tends to discount the index has not being that relevant. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
US leading index for June -0.2% versus -0.1% estimate
Prior month 0.1% Leading economic index -0.2% versus -0.1% estimate Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board said: “In June, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined and partially reversed gains registered in May and April. While some components of the LEI were little changed, the largest positive contribution from the yield spread, followed by marginal positive input from the remaining financial components, were not enough to offset weak consumer expectations and a drop in building permits across most of its categories. Despite the recent decline, the LEI’s six- and twelve-month growth rates, while negative, were stable. Consumer spending is weakening, but strong business investment related to AI is expected to support economic activity while inflation continues to improve. The Conference Board raised its forecast from 1.8% to 1.9% y/y GDP growth for 2026.” Looking at the coincident and lagging indicators from the conference Board: The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.2% in June to 114.6, matching the 0.2% increase recorded in May. The CEI increased 0.4% during the first half of 2026, slightly stronger than the 0.3% gain in the previous six months. All four components of the CEI—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—contributed positively in June. The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) was unchanged at 120.5 in June after slipping 0.1% in May. Despite the flat June reading, the LAG advanced 1.1% during the first half of 2026, reversing the 0.1% decline recorded in the second half of 2025. Overall, the data suggest current economic activity remained on a steady upward path in June, while leading signs from the lagging index point to improved economic momentum compared with late 2025. The Conference Board's June data paint a picture of an economy that continues to expand, but at a modest pace. The Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.2%, a weaker result than the -0.1% expected, partially reversing gains from the prior two months. The decline reflects softer consumer expectations and weaker building permits, signaling that consumer-driven growth and the housing sector remain areas of concern. However, improving financial conditions, easing inflation, and robust business investment tied to artificial intelligence are helping to offset those headwinds, prompting The Conference Board to raise its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.9% from 1.8%. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which measures current economic conditions, rose 0.2% for a second straight month as all four of its components—including employment, income, industrial production, and sales—improved, indicating that the economy remains on solid footing today. The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) was unchanged in June but continues to trend higher over the first half of the year, suggesting that underlying economic momentum has improved compared with late 2025. Overall, the report points to continued, moderate economic growth rather than an imminent recession, with AI-related business investment helping to offset softer consumer demand and housing activity. The index has also been consistently negative for years suggesting a recession is just around that corner which has never happened. As a result, the market tends to discount the index has not being that relevant. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
US stocks open higher. NASDAQ index leads the way higher.
The major US stock indices are pushing to the upside led by the NASDAQ index. Looking at the major indices, a snapshot currently shows: Dow industrial average up 165 points or 0.31% have 52315. S&P index of 54 points or 0.72% at 7511.20 NASDAQ index up 285 points or 1.12% at 25805. Chip and AI stocks are helping to ignite the rally to start the new trading week. Below are some of those stocks and their percentage changes Nebius Group is trading up $14.25 or 8.02% at $191.96. Credo Technology Group is trading up $13.41 or 6.61% at $216.09. Lumentum Holdings is trading up $44.37 or 6.05% at $777.19. Coherent Corp. is trading up $16.73 or 6.03% at $294.33. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is trading up $25.58 or 5.16% at $521.34. Intel is trading up $4.91 or 5.17% at $99.95. Micron Technology is trading up $42.98 or 5.06% at $891.94. SanDisk is trading up $68.92 or 5.09% at $1,423.74. Applied Materials is trading up $22.15 or 4.18% at $551.81. Astera Labs is trading up $11.38 or 3.75% at $315.00. Marvell Technology is trading up $5.59 or 2.96% at $194.27. Broadcom is trading up $10.48 or 2.83% at $381.31. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) is trading up $10.94 or 2.75% at $409.31. Fundamentally, the markets are being help by hopes for cease-fire in the Straits of Hormuz. Technically, looking at the NASDAQ index, the price is testing its 100 and 200 hour moving averages. The 200 hour moving averages at 25931.02. The 100 hour moving averages at 25974.15. The high price reached 25810.54 and currently trades at 25803. If the buyers are to take more control, they would need to get above those hourly moving averages at the higher levels. For the S&P index, it trades between its 200 and 100 hour moving averages. The 200 hour moving averages at 7465.15. The 100 hour moving averages at 7508.65. The current price is at 7503 – just below the 100 hour moving average. If the price can get and stay above the 100 hour moving average, the next target would be up near 7577.92.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
The AUDUSD and NZDUSD are moving higher today helped by risk-on flow and technicals
For the AUDUSD, the technical picture has also shifted more favorably for buyers. The pair found willing buyers on Friday and again during today's Asian session within a key swing area between 0.6962 and 0.6978. That support zone once again proved its importance, allowing buyers to define their risk against the lower end of the range and begin another move higher. The buying interest gained momentum after the pair broke above its 100-hour moving average and then successfully retested that moving average, currently near 0.6988. Holding that level as support gave buyers greater confidence to extend the rally, with the price reaching a session high near 0.7014 before easing modestly. Even with the slight pullback, the pair remains comfortably above the 100-hour moving average, keeping the near-term bias tilted in favor of the bulls. For buyers to maintain control, the price needs to remain above the 100-hour moving average. A move back below that level would weaken the bullish outlook and shift the focus back toward the sellers, with the rising 200-hour moving average at 0.6962 becoming the next logical downside target. On the topside, a break above today's high and last week's high near 0.7021 would strengthen the bullish case and expose the 100-day moving average at 0.7058. That level is particularly noteworthy because the pair has not traded above its 100-day moving average since June 15, making it an important technical hurdle that could attract additional buying if broken. The NZDUSD has displayed even stronger upside momentum over the past several weeks. Since establishing a low on June 26, the pair has consistently carved out a series of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the positive technical trend. After reaching a high of 0.5862 last Wednesday, the pair entered a healthy corrective phase that allowed the rising 100-hour moving average to catch up with price. That moving average was tested during early Asian trading today, and buyers once again stepped in aggressively. The successful defense of the 100-hour moving average gave traders another opportunity to define their risk and helped launch the latest push higher, forcing short-term sellers onto the defensive. However, the rally has now run into an important area of resistance. Today's high stalled just below last week's high and the June 15 high, both clustered around the 0.5862 level. That price now represents the key ceiling for buyers. If the pair can break above 0.5862 and sustain trading above that level, it would signal another bullish breakout and increase the likelihood of an extension higher. Until then, buyers still have work to do. On the downside, the first line of defense remains the rising 100-hour moving average, currently near 0.5835. As long as the price stays above that support, buyers retain the near-term technical advantage. A move below the moving average, however, would suggest upside momentum is fading and could trigger a deeper corrective move before the broader uptrend resumes. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Canada June CPI YoY 2.8% vs 2.9% estimate
CPI MoM -04% versus -0.2% estimate. Prior month +1.0% CPI YoY 2.8% versus 2.9% estimate. Prior month 3.2% CPI BOC COre YoY 2.1% versus 2.2% last month CPI BoC Core MoM 0.1% versus 0.6% last month CPI MOM SA -0.1% vs. 05% last month Core CPI MoM SA 0.2% versus 0.2% last month CPI median +1.9% versus 2.1% estimate. Prior month 2.1% CPI trim 1.8% versus 2.0% estimate. Prior month 2.0% CPI common 2.6% versus 2.7% last month Gasoline prices continued to ease in June, rising at a slower year-over-year pace than in May and helping to drive the moderation in Canada's headline inflation rate. Prices at the pump increased at a slower rate on a year-over-year basis in June (+20.5%) compared with May (+33.2%). While gasoline prices remained elevated due to the conflict in the Middle East, diplomatic talks and an interim ceasefire arrangement contributed to an easing of global oil prices in June, leading to a 10.2% month-over-month decline. Excluding gasoline, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged from the previous month at 2.2%, underscoring the broader stability in underlying inflation. On a monthly basis, the CPI declined 0.4% in June—the largest monthly drop since December 2024. After seasonal adjustment, prices slipped 0.1%, marking the first monthly decline since April 2025 and signaling that inflationary pressures continued to soften as the second quarter came to a close. World Cup had an impact on travel related services The 2026 FIFA World Cup boosted travel-related inflation in June, particularly in host cities such as Toronto and Vancouver. Strong visitor demand pushed traveller accommodation prices up 10.1% year over year, with hotel prices surging 19.4% in Ontario and 20.0% in British Columbia. Increased travel also lifted rental car prices by 6.8%, travel tour prices by 6.8%, and airfares by 9.6%, as higher domestic travel demand and elevated jet fuel costs combined to drive transportation costs higher. Regionally, Inflation slowed in every Canadian province in June compared with May, except in Prince Edward Island. Slower gasoline price increases were the primary reason for the nationwide moderation in inflation. Internet service prices fell 3.8% year over year, led by lower pricing across most of Western Canada. Cellular service prices in Quebec rose 2.6% as promotional pricing ended and new plan prices increased. Ontario recorded the lowest annual inflation rate at 2.0%, helped by slower restaurant price increases. Nova Scotia had the highest annual inflation rate at 4.7%, driven mainly by higher traveller accommodation costs. IN Summary: Overall, Canada's June inflation report pointed to easing underlying price pressures despite pockets of strength in travel-related categories. The headline CPI declined 0.4% from May—the largest monthly drop since December 2024—while the annual inflation rate moderated as gasoline prices slowed sharply. Excluding gasoline, inflation held steady at 2.2%, suggesting broader price pressures remained well contained. While World Cup-related travel demand temporarily boosted prices for hotels, airfares, rental vehicles, and travel tours, the overall trend was one of cooling inflation, with lower energy costs and softer price growth across most provinces helping to offset those increases. The USDCAD is higher after the report with the price ticking back above the 100 hour MA at 1.4040. The price movedbelow the 100 hour MA on July 8 and has stayed below the MA since that time. The price is back above that MA. That will be a barometer for the buyers and the sellers This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
The USD is mixed to kickstart the North American session
The USD is mixed and little changed vs the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - while the AUD and NZD move higher on risk on flows. The video above takes a look at the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective and outlines the bias, the risks, and he targets for each. The risk on flows have been helped by reports that mediators have proposed a 10-day cessation of strikes between Iran and the United States in an effort to revive talks on an interim agreement, according to a senior Iranian source cited by Reuters. Iranian officials have indicated they remain open to negotiations if they serve the country's national interests, while continuing to insist that Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is non-negotiable. The headlines eased fears of an immediate escalation in the region, sending oil prices sharply lower and boosting risk assets. The price of oil is trading at $80.00 currently. That is down -$1.80. The high for the day extended to $84.60 - the highest level since June 12 four rotating back to the downside. Technically, the price has dipped back below its 100 hour moving average at $80.23. The low price reached to $79.58. The 100 hour moving average will be a barometer for both buyers and sellers. Stay below and we would expect a further move lower with support down at $77.84. Which is near the low price from both Tuesday and Friday. The rising 100 hour moving averages at $76.95 currently. The UK has a new prime minister Andy Burnham. In his initial remarks as UK PM, Burnham said his government will use public procurement as a key tool to help reindustrialize the UK while maintaining its commitment to fiscal discipline. He announced that new cost-of-living measures will be unveiled tomorrow, pledged to accelerate the construction of council housing, and reaffirmed that his government will honor both its fiscal rules and defense commitments. Burnham also said there will be no change in the UK's support for Ukraine, adding that his first calls as prime minister will be with U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky. Taking a look at the market, yields are higher in the US to start the North American session: 2year yield 4.189%, +1.7 basis points 5-year yield 4.294%, +2.15 basis points 10 year yield 4.565%, +2.4 basis points 30 year yield 5.083%, +1.9 basis points US futures are applying a higher open NASDAQ +201 points S&P of 17 points Dow industrial average of 94 points Congratulations to Spain for their World Cup victory. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
investingLive European markets wrap: Oil retreats, equities bounce as Iran touches on mediation proposals
Headlines: Market update: WTI crude down 2% to $80.05 European equities slightly higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.5% AUD leads, EUR and CAD lag on the day US 10-year yields up 0.5 bps to 4.547% Gold up 0.3% to $4,030 Bitcoin up 0.4% to $64,791 This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
Mediators have proposed a 10-day cessation of strikes to find ways to revive the US-Iran deal
A senior Iranian source reported that mediators have proposed a 10-day cessation of strikes to find ways to revive the US-Iran deal. Mediators proposed that Iran and US return to pre-July 9th positions. Risk sentiment improved further on the headline and oil prices extended the losses. Earlier in the session, the based on its national interests, while confirming that mediators have remained active in recent days despite the ongoing conflict. His remarks suggested that diplomatic channels have remained open despite the collapse of the ceasefire. Those remarks helped turned the risk sentiment around and oil prices started to ease after the jump triggered by the saying that the US was preparing for a wider war and that the Pentagon was increasing the number of military aircraft in the Middle East. The confirmation of a ceasefire from both sides would likely boost the risk sentiment further as traders will start to look forward towards a de-escalation and eventually another fragile MoU-type deal. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
Oil prices ease a bit after Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson suggests diplomatic efforts are continuing despite the attacks
Negotiations with the US could be pursued based on national interests Mediators have shared messages with Tehran over recent days We have received proposals from mediators in war with US Sovereign rights over Strait of Hormuz are non-negotiable Iran's interior minister to visit Pakistan today Baghaei added that Iran has received proposals from mediators and exchanged messages with them over recent days. His remarks suggest that diplomatic channels remain open despite the collapse of the ceasefire and the renewed exchange of military strikes between the two sides. Pakistan, Qatar and Oman have all continued efforts to facilitate contacts between Washington and Tehran as they seek to prevent a broader regional conflict. However, Baghaei reiterated that Iran's position on the Strait of Hormuz remains unchanged, stressing that the country's sovereign rights over the waterway are "non-negotiable". The dispute over control and navigation through the strait has become one of the principal sticking points in the crisis. Baghaei also announced that Iran's interior minister will visit Pakistan later today. His remarks lifted the broader risk sentiment with crude oil falling a bit, but the risks of further escalations remain elevated and that will keep oil prices underpinned. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
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