Forex & Trading
Currency pairs, central banks, and macro flows.
investingLive Americas FX news wrap 14 Aug: Stocks finish mixed as yields rise and the dollar falls
As Yogi Berra once said, "It ain't over until it is over". Welll it is over. The week is over. For the day, the U.S. stocks finished mostly lower on Friday, but the declines were modest as the major indices wrapped up a mixed week. The S&P 500 reached a new record high during the week before backing off into the Friday close, while small caps were the standout performer. The Russell 2000 rose 0.51% on the day and closed at a new record high. Dow industrial average: 53,737.38, -108.01 points or -0.20% S&P 500: 7,785.75, -13.23 points or -0.17% Nasdaq composite: 26,729.16, -73.86 points or -0.28% Russell 2000: 3,068.42, +15.59 points or +0.51% Nasdaq 100: 30,046.14, -38.36 points or -0.13% For the week, the Dow was the only major index to finish lower, while the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 led the gains: Dow: -0.56% S&P 500: +0.36% Nasdaq: +0.14% Russell 2000: +1.11% Nasdaq 100: +1.09% The modest weakness in stocks came despite a softer U.S. dollar. The greenback moved lower against all of the major currencies, with the largest declines coming against the NZD and CAD. The weaker dollar followed a disappointing U.S. retail sales report that added another question mark over the strength of the U.S. consumer. The percentage changes versus the dollar showed: EUR: +0.36% JPY: +0.11% GBP: +0.33% CHF: +0.09% CAD: +0.42% AUD: +0.38% NZD: +0.65% The NZD was the strongest of the major currencies, while the JPY and CHF posted the smallest gains versus the dollar. The economic catalyst for much of the dollar weakness came from July retail sales. Headline sales fell 0.6%, well below expectations for a 0.1% increase and following a 0.2% gain in June. Excluding autos, sales fell 0.3%, while the important retail control group declined 0.4%. It was the first monthly decline in headline retail sales in nine months. There were some pockets of strength underneath the headline. Building-material sales rose 0.3%, while food services and drinking places increased 0.5%. However, motor vehicles and parts fell 1.8%, electronics sales declined 0.5%, and non-store retailers dropped 2.2%. One month does not make a trend, but the report puts a dent in the idea that the U.S. consumer will continue to spend at a solid pace as long as the labor market remains relatively stable. Adding to the softer consumer picture was the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for August. Sentiment fell to 51.0 from 55.2 in July and was well below the 54.5 expected. Current conditions fell to 51.8 versus 55.0 expected, while expectations dropped to 50.6 versus 55.2 expected. Inflation expectations were less encouraging. One-year expectations edged higher to 4.3% from 4.2%, while five-year expectations remained elevated at 3.3%. That leaves the Fed looking at a somewhat uncomfortable combination of weaker consumer readings but inflation expectations that remain above desired levels. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee played down the significance of one weak retail sales report, saying U.S. GDP and the labor market remain basically stable. He said continued weakness in spending could become concerning, but emphasized the need for more data. Goolsbee also said he was encouraged by the recent CPI reports. Goolsbee raised another interesting issue for markets, pointing to weakness in recent productivity readings. If that weakness persists, it could complicate the inflation outlook and potentially challenge some of the optimism surrounding the productivity benefits expected from AI investment. While the dollar weakened on the softer economic data, U.S. yields finished higher from the levels shown late in the session. Using the 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year maturities as proxies for the curve: 2-year: 4.171%, +3.1 basis points 5-year: 4.362%, +4.9 basis points 10-year: 4.692%, +5.1 basis points 30-year: 5.260%, +4.9 basis points The larger increases farther out the curve resulted in a modest steepening from the 2-year through the longer maturities. The pressure on longer-term yields remains an important issue for equities, particularly with valuations elevated and markets continuing to weigh inflation, energy prices and the enormous capital spending associated with the AI buildout. The rise in yields was not confined to the U.S. European benchmark yields also jumped sharply Friday, and that helped put some pressure on equities across the region. European shares closed mostly lower, although Germany's DAX bucked the trend: German DAX: +0.51% at 26,432.87 France CAC 40: -0.16% at 8,636.81 UK FTSE 100: -0.21% at 10,750.12 Spain Ibex: -0.06% at 20,156.61 Italy FTSE MIB: -0.20% at 53,583.60 The moves in European 10-year yields were considerably larger: Germany: 3.205%, +7.1 basis points France: 4.048%, +9.9 basis points UK: 5.042%, +9.0 basis points Spain: 3.652%, +8.4 basis points Italy: 3.990%, +9.3 basis points In other markets, crude oil was a notable winner, while gold and silver also moved higher. Bitcoin moved in the opposite direction: Crude oil: $82.38, +$1.13 or +1.39% Gold: $4,376.16, +$26.14 or +0.60% Silver: $64.71, +$0.24 or +0.37% Bitcoin: $62,855, -$563 or -0.89% So the week ends with a number of competing signals for traders to digest. The S&P 500 reached another record during the week but could not hold onto the momentum Friday. The Russell 2000, meanwhile, ended at a record, suggesting the equity rally continues to broaden beyond the mega-cap names. At the same time, retail sales and consumer sentiment raised questions about the strength of the U.S. consumer, the dollar weakened, oil moved higher, and global bond yields remain a potential headwind. That combination sets up another interesting week ahead as traders continue to balance growth, inflation and Fed expectations against equity markets that remain near record levels.Thank you for your support. Hope you have a good and safe weekend. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Trump: Pretty soon will be declaring Strait of Hormuz territory of the US
Trump is speaking and says: Pretty soon he'll be declaring the Strait of Hormuz territory of the US. Warned that Iranian aggression would be met with response hundred times harder and emphasized that the US only permits vessels to enter the Strait at its discretion. Calls the blockade is unstoppable US to pay a tiny little price for gasoline. Says he will hit Iran hard economically. Does not care if hitting the Iran economy before midterms This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
EURUSD backs off from the 50% midpoint target at 1.1585. What next?
For the second Friday in a row, the pair broke above its 100-day moving average, only to struggle to sustain momentum. This time, buyers pushed the price into the next key target area near 1.1586, where the top of a swing area converges with the 50% retracement. The high reached 1.1585, virtually testing that level to the pip, before buyers turned to sellers. The subsequent reversal has taken the EURUSD back below the 100-day moving average, once again putting the upside move in jeopardy. That price action has an eerily similar feel to last Friday. The EURUSD also moved above the 100-day moving average then, but the breakout failed. That failure helped trigger the decline that ultimately took the pair to 1.1511 yesterday. Importantly, that low remained above the key swing support surrounding the 1.1500 level. As trading winds down for the week, the 100-day moving average remains the key barometer. A close near that level effectively passes the decision to next week, with traders likely to use it as the dividing line between a more bullish and bearish technical bias. On the topside, a move back above the 100-day MA would put 1.1586 back in focus. A sustained break above that level would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door toward the 200-day moving average at 1.1627. Conversely, staying below the 100-day MA would keep the buyers on the defensive. The next downside targets would be the 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.1539, followed by 1.1524. A break below those levels would shift the focus back toward the key 1.1498–1.1506 swing area. For now, the 100-day moving average is the battleground. Above it, buyers get another opportunity. Below it, the risk increases that Friday's breakout becomes another failed attempt. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
The broader S&P and Nasdaq indices are trading near new lows. What are the technicals telling traders?
S&P index: down -0.23% on the day, but still holding onto a 0.30% gain for the week. NASDAQ index: down -0.52% today and now -0.09% for the week. For the S&P, the index stretched to a new record high this week, but buyers have been unable to generate additional upside momentum in trading today. The NASDAQ also reached an important technical milestone this week, extending above a key swing area that tops out at 26,788.62. However, that breakout has also failed to attract sustained follow-through buying, with the index moving back to the downside today. Those failures to extend higher put more focus on the technical levels heading into the remainder of today's session and into next week. In the video above, I take a closer look at the technical picture for both the S&P and NASDAQ. Where is the key resistance? What are the next downside targets? And perhaps most importantly, where are the risk-defining levels that will tell traders whether buyers can regain control or whether sellers are starting to make a stronger play? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
GBPUSD moves to new highs going back to May. Breaks away from 50% retracement.
The GBPUSD is running higher and is now up near 0.50% on the day. The run higher has taken the price above the 100 hour moving average and 50% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 1.3503. The price is also extending above the month of July at 1.35573. The high prices just reached 1.3561. That takes a price for the GBPUSD to the highest level going back to May 12. Technically, looking at the 4 hour chart, the price extended above a swing area between 1.3543 and 1.3557. For traders looking for more upside momentum, staying above 1.3543 is a close risk level. Move back below and there could be some disappointment on the failed break. Stay above and the buyers are still in firm control with the 61.8% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 1.3589 the next target. A move above that level with and have traders looking toward the April highs which peak near 1.3657. The high price for the year was reached back in January all the way up at 1.38671. So the break today is still quite a ways away from the high price from 2026. Nevertheless, breaking above the 50% in the aforementioned swing area is a positive/bullish development. The door remains open for further upside momentum. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
US Business inventories for June 0.0% vs 0.1% estimate
Prior month 0.3% revised higher to 0.4% Business inventories for June 0.0% vs 0.1% estimate Retail inventories ex autos -0.4% vs -0.2% last month. Sales show a sharp fall in June but still up strong for the year. June business sales: $2.111 trillion Month-over-month:-1.1% vs. May 2026 Year-over-year:+10.0% vs. June 2025 Sales figures are seasonally and trading-day adjusted, but not adjusted for price changes. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of June was 1.30 which is higher from the lowest level going back to 2021. The June 2025 ratio was 1.39. Inventories are lean relative to sales. Businesses are carrying less inventory for each dollar of sales, meaning there is less of an inventory cushion. Potential production boost: If demand holds up, companies may need to increase orders and production to rebuild inventories. Historically, inventory drawdowns associated with stronger demand can lead to increased output as firms restock. Positive for GDP: Inventory investment is part of GDP. A transition from little or no inventory accumulation to meaningful restocking can therefore add to GDP growth, even before inventories become particularly large. The Fed has documented past periods when a turn from inventory liquidation toward restocking provided a meaningful contribution to growth. Positive for manufacturing and transportation: A broad rebuild could mean more factory production, supplier orders, freight and warehousing activity. But demand is critical. A low ratio by itself doesn't guarantee a rebuild. If sales weaken, companies may be perfectly comfortable with existing inventories and won't necessarily increase orders. There is also a structural issue: Businesses have become more efficient at running lean inventories through just-in-time systems, so today's "normal" inventory-to-sales ratio may be lower than historical norms. For the June numbers, there's an interesting setup: inventories were essentially flat m/m while sales were +10.0% y/y, and the inventory/sales ratio is 1.30 versus 1.39 a year ago. If sales remain resilient, that increasingly argues for future inventory rebuilding—which could provide an additional tailwind to production and GDP. The key question over the next few months is whether sales stay strong enough to force businesses to restock. The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. Data for the wholesale and manufacturing sectors are unrevised from the most recent Monthly Wholesale Trade Report and the Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and orders. Data from the Retail sector is revised and presented in more detail from the most recent Advance Economic Indicators Report This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
USDCAD runs lower adding to the sellers control. The key 200 day MA is eyed.
the sellers still had the strongest hand ( ). That changed today as sellers pushed the pair to a new weekly low at 1.3868. The weekly range has now expanded to nearly 100 pips, which is a little more respectable, although still not particularly large by historical standards. More importantly, the move lower represents another leg in the step-by-step decline that has been developing since USDCAD peaked in mid-June. From a technical perspective, the sellers have checked off several important boxes this week. The price held resistance within the 1.3948 to 1.3966 swing area, then moved below and away from the 100-hour moving average at 1.39295 and the 100-day moving average at 1.39185 (see blue lines on the chart above). The pair has also broken below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the May 1 low near 1.3550 to the June 24 high at 1.4247. That midpoint comes in at 1.3899 — call it 1.3900 — and the break below that level represents another important technical victory for sellers in the stair-step move lower from the June high. The low today reached 1.3868, briefly moving below the bottom of a swing area between 1.38683 and 1.3877. However, the decline has so far stalled ahead of two increasingly important downside targets: a channel trendline near 1.3859 and the 200-day moving average at 1.3852. That 200-day moving average is particularly important. The last time USDCAD traded below its 200-day moving average was back around June 1. At that time, the price broke below and based near the moving average around 1.3810 before reversing sharply higher. That rebound ultimately carried the pair to its 2026 high at 1.4247 on June 24 — a significant move in a relatively short period of time. The 200-day moving average has since moved higher to 1.3852, but it remains a key barometer for both buyers and sellers. As a result, I would not be surprised to see some apprehension on the first test of that level. Sellers who entered at higher levels may look to take some profits, while dip buyers may lean against the moving average looking for a corrective bounce. Importantly, the level also gives those buyers a clearly defined area where risk can be limited. Nevertheless, the sellers remain in control. A sustained break below the 200-day moving average at 1.3852 would represent another significant bearish technical development and open the door for further downside momentum. Conversely, simply bouncing from the 200-day moving average would not be enough to turn the technical picture bullish. It would take a move back above the 100-day and 100-hour moving averages in the 1.3920–1.3930 area to start scaring the sellers and give buyers greater confidence that a more meaningful bottom may be in place. For now, the stair-step trend remains lower, with the 200-day moving average at 1.3852 shaping up as the next major test. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Canada Manufacturing Sales for June +0.1% vs -0.1% estimate
Prior month +1.3% Manufacturing Sales +0.1% versus -0.1% estimate Details: Manufacturing sales: +0.1% m/m to $78.8 billion, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Year over year: Sales were +14.5%. Excluding petroleum & coal: Sales increased a much stronger 2.6% m/m. Constant-dollar sales: +1.2%, suggesting underlying volumes were firmer than the headline nominal increase. Chemicals: +6.0% to $6.3 billion, a fourth straight gain and highest since October 2022. Transportation equipment: +2.8% to $12.4 billion, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Motor vehicle parts: +6.2% Aerospace products & parts: +6.0% Petroleum & coal:-14.1% to $10.1 billion, largely reflecting lower petroleum and energy prices. Second-quarter strength is a positive Q2 manufacturing sales surged 9.3% to a record $235.1 billion, the fourth straight quarterly increase. Petroleum & coal: +33.7% q/q Transportation equipment: +14.7% q/q Excluding petroleum & coal: +6.1% q/q Constant-dollar Q2 sales: +4.6% Inventories do add to the growth. Manufacturing inventories rose 0.6% to $126.8 billion in June and were up 2.0% in Q2. Goods in process: +2.0% Raw materials: +0.2% Finished products: -0.3% Transportation equipment inventories: +3.1% Machinery: +2.0% Petroleum and coal: -3.6% Inventory-to-sales ratio edged higher to 1.61 from 1.60 in May. Unfilled orders increased 1.2% to a record $131.8 billion, driven largely by a 2.4% increase in aerospace products and parts. Unfilled orders were +8.4% in Q2. Capacity utilization edged up to 82.3% from 82.2%. Non-metallic mineral products: +4.3 percentage points Primary metals: +1.9 points Machinery: +0.6 point Transportation equipment: -2.9 points Overall, the headline +0.1% increase looks modest, but it was better than expectatations and the the details are stronger. Excluding the sharp petroleum decline, sales rose 2.6%, volumes increased 1.2%, Q2 sales hit a record, and unfilled orders also reached a record high. The 2nd quarter data was strong as well. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
US stocks hit records (again...), but oil and earnings risks are growing. What can you trade?
US stocks remain supported by softer inflation and lower expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike. However, two risks are becoming harder to ignore: elevated oil prices and a defensive shift in recent earnings reactions. The market is still constructive, but traders may need to become more selective rather than simply buying every AI stock or market dip. Key takeaways for traders and investors today US stocks: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record levels after benign producer-price inflation. Main macro risk: A sustained Brent crude breakout above $90 could revive inflation concerns and pressure growth stocks. Earnings warning: Recent earnings batches have produced weaker breadth and more influential large-cap declines. AI lesson: Applied Materials fell about 5% despite solid results, showing that good earnings are not always good enough when expectations are extremely high. Current market read: This looks like an emerging defensive shift, not yet a confirmed bearish regime. In my latest market breakdown, as futures slip beneath their developing value area and spot trades under its rising pitchfork channel, placing the immediate tactical burden of proof entirely on buyers. Meanwhile, risk sentiment in broader equity markets continues to find underlying support, with Eamonn Sheridan from investingLive.com reporting that amid aggressive enterprise expansion ahead of a prospective public listing. In the macro and currency space, Justin Low at investingLive.com outlined due to severe debt-servicing limits and deeply negative real rates, while his commodity coverage also highlighted how , shifting the yellow metal's near-term bias to neutral as sellers defend key technical resistance overhead. And if you're interested in . Why softer inflation is helping US stocks The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,798.99, up 0.65%, while the Nasdaq advanced 0.81% to 26,803.03. The Dow gained a more modest 0.13%, finishing at 53,839.99. Technology and semiconductor stocks again provided important leadership. Sandisk rose approximately 13.7%, Micron gained around 4.2%, Meta advanced 2.8%, and Microsoft added nearly 1%. The immediate catalyst was softer US producer-price inflation. July PPI was essentially unchanged from the previous month, compared with expectations for a 0.2% increase. That reduced the probability of another near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. Markets are now pricing roughly a 33% to 35% chance of a September increase, down from approximately 55% a week earlier. This matters because lower expectations for future interest rates can make highly valued growth stocks easier for investors to justify. However, the US 10-year Treasury yield remains relatively elevated near 4.66% to 4.70%, so technology stocks are not completely free from interest-rate risk. Are earnings reactions becoming more defensive? The broader index picture is bullish, but the latest earnings reactions are becoming less supportive. The August 13 after-hours batch produced several defensive signals: Only about 37% of directional reactions were positive. The median stock reaction was approximately -1.3%. The simple average reaction was around -1.8%. When company size was considered, the batch weakened to approximately -2.8%. Downside moves beyond options-implied expectations slightly outnumbered upside breaks. This does not mean Q3 earnings season has turned decisively bearish. Earlier batches produced powerful gains in companies such as Nebius, CoreWeave, Lumentum and Super Micro. The wider quarter has also included major positive repricings in Microsoft, Amazon, Palantir, Shopify and Airbnb. The better description is a highly selective earnings environment that is beginning to develop a defensive bias. Investors are still willing to reward genuine upside surprises. They are also becoming less forgiving when results, guidance or management commentary fail to meet elevated expectations. Why Applied Materials matters, but is not an extreme shock Applied Materials fell about 5% after earnings, despite revenue growth of approximately 25%, better-than-expected revenue and guidance above consensus. This reaction matters because Applied Materials is a large semiconductor company. Its decline can affect sector sentiment and major indexes much more than a larger percentage move in a small company. However, there is an important nuance: options traders had been pricing an earnings move of approximately 7.4%. A 5% decline is therefore negative, but smaller than the move the options market considered plausible before the announcement. It is a meaningful large-cap drag, not an unusually severe earnings shock. This distinction helps explain why traders should compare the actual reaction with the expected move. What this means: Options prices provide an estimate of how far a stock might move around earnings. A 5% decline when 10% was expected can be relatively contained. A 10% decline when only 4% was expected represents a much stronger negative surprise. Why the indexes can rise while earnings sentiment weakens Earnings breadth counts how many reporting companies rise or fall, but that count does not reveal the entire market impact. Twenty small companies can rally while one major technology company falls. The batch may have more winners, yet the large company can still exert greater pressure on the S&P 500 or Nasdaq. That appears to be part of the current story. Some recent earnings batches had respectable positive breadth, but larger negative companies mattered more than the smaller winners. The latest earnings data should therefore be treated as an early warning about market psychology, not proof that the broader equity rally is over. The most interesting markets and setups to watch Could oil become the spoiler for stocks? Brent crude is trading near $87 per barrel, while WTI is around $81. Oil is caught between two powerful forces. Middle East tensions and risks surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are supporting prices. On the other side, weaker demand forecasts and a large increase in US crude inventories are limiting the bullish case. The area around $90 Brent is the clearest macro level to watch. Bullish oil scenario: Sustained acceptance above $90 would suggest geopolitical supply risk is overpowering weaker-demand concerns. Traders could then monitor crude oil, energy producers and relative weakness in rate-sensitive technology stocks. Bearish oil scenario: Rejection in the upper $80s, followed by a breakdown, could favor mean reversion as weaker demand and rising inventories regain attention. Even investors who never trade oil should watch this market. The potential transmission mechanism is straightforward: Higher oil prices → greater inflation risk → higher interest-rate expectations → potentially higher Treasury yields → pressure on expensive growth stocks. What should traders watch in AI and semiconductor stocks? Applied Materials, Cisco and other recent reporters show that an earnings beat alone is no longer enough to guarantee a bullish reaction. For potential longs, traders may want to watch strong companies that initially sell off after earnings but subsequently reclaim the breakdown area. That can show that the market has absorbed the disappointment and is beginning to accept higher prices again. For potential shorts, failure to reclaim the post-earnings gap can support a continuation or fade setup, particularly when the stock entered earnings with an extended valuation and exceptionally high expectations. The key question is not simply whether the stock initially rose or fell: Does the market accept the new post-earnings price, or does it quickly reverse the reaction? Is the gold pullback a possible opportunity? Spot gold is trading near $4,324, while US gold futures are around $4,379. The current decline looks more like profit-taking following a strong advance than definitive evidence of a larger bearish reversal. Gold continues to receive support from geopolitical uncertainty, central-bank demand, portfolio diversification and reduced expectations for additional Fed tightening. One possible setup is to wait for a controlled pullback that forms a higher low. The bullish case would strengthen if buyers defend support while Treasury yields and the US dollar remain contained. The setup weakens if gold breaks deeper support at the same time that yields and the dollar accelerate higher. Why USD/JPY near 160 deserves attention USD/JPY is approaching the psychologically important 160 area. Large round numbers can attract profit-taking, stop orders, options activity and concerns about possible official intervention. Traders should focus on the reaction rather than automatically buying or selling at the number. Sustained acceptance above 160 could support another momentum move higher. A sharp rejection could produce a tactical bearish setup. This is a useful example of why price behavior around a level is often more informative than the level itself. What would confirm a broader defensive shift? The warning from recent earnings would become more convincing if upcoming batches show several of the following: Fewer than half of reporting companies rise. Large-cap earnings reactions remain negative. More stocks fall beyond their options-implied moves. Semiconductor weakness spreads across the sector. Recent earnings losers fail to recover. Previous earnings winners begin surrendering their gains. The defensive interpretation would weaken if major earnings losers recover, large-cap winners reappear, semiconductor leadership strengthens and positive reactions again exceed expected moves. For now, US equities remain supported, but the easy phase of simply chasing strong indexes and AI enthusiasm may be becoming more complicated. Oil, Treasury yields and post-earnings price acceptance should provide the clearest evidence about what comes next. These are market scenarios and areas to monitor, not guarantees or individualized investment advice. Traders should define their confirmation, invalidation and maximum acceptable risk before entering a position. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.
investingLive European session wrap: Dollar falls, gold rebounds amid mixed markets
Headlines: Markets: WTI crude oil up 0.5% to $81.64 NZD leads, USD lags on the day Gold up 0.3% to $4,362 S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, Nasdaq futures up 0.2% US 10-year yields up 0.3 bps to 4.645% Bitcoin down 0.8% to $62,829 This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
Follow-up: Latvia shoots down drone hours after issuing air threat alert
, this wasn't a stray drone drifting off course, it required a NATO air defence mission to physically shoot it down over Latvian territory, a more serious outcome than the alert-and-clear pattern that has repeated through 2026. Combined with 15 drones downed near Russia's own Leningrad border region and reports that NATO's northern members are actively hardening dams, power plants and gas infrastructure against a possible false flag attack, the story has moved from routine border friction toward something closer to sustained low-level harassment. Not yet a market moving event on its own, but worth tracking closely alongside European defence names and any broader NATO response. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
investingLive Americas market news wrap: S&P 500 hits a fresh record
Markets: WTI crude oil down $2.05 to $81.21 US 10-year yields down 4.3 bps to 4.64% Gold down $58 to $4348 S&P 500 up 0.65%, touches intraday record EUR leads, CHF lags It was a dull day in FX but lively elsewhere. The oil market was a strange one and made even stranger beacuse oil companies didn't follow the price of crude lower. Virtually all the headlines have been about attacks in the oil chokepoints in the Middle East and crude fell notably. That left the lingering feeling that someone knows something. Treasury yields declined and that could have been oil related but it also could have been on a lower PPI, helping the inflation picture. The Fed's Barkin sounded reluctant to hike, though certainly not close-minded. Gold was also lower, perhaps on profit taking or in response to lower signs of inflation -- though it didn't respond to cooling CPI or non-farm payrolls data earlier this month. Call it a sign of the summer doldrums. Meanwhile, there are no days off for the degens, as Sandisk shares paced US markets with a 14% gain. Intel, Fedex, Netflix, and Meta were among the other -- much smaller -- winners. Cisco shares fell 8% on 'conservative' revenue guidance (though it was higher than the consensus). Workday was another notable gainer on takeover rumors. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
US treasury sells 30 year bonds at a high yield of 5.216%
High yield 5.216% WI level at the time of the auction 5.212% Tail 0.4 basis points vs average of -0.2 basis points Bid to cover 2.39X vs average of 2.43X Directs 21.6% vs average of 22.5% Indirects 66.8% vs average of 67.0% Dealers 11.6% vs average of 10.6% Auction Grade: C- The Tail was above the WI level. The bid to cover was just below the average. The Dealers were saddled with more than the average as a result of slightly less than average demand from the directs (domestic) and indirects (international) buyers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
The USDCHF is maintaining a bullish tilt but the upside is still limited
Near the middle of that range sit two important technical levels: the 100-hour moving average at 0.8107 and the 200-hour moving average at 0.8101. In trading today, the price has remained above both moving averages, with the session low reaching 0.8113 before buyers stepped back in and pushed the pair higher. On the topside, the rebound carried USDCHF into a swing area between 0.8138 and 0.8151, with today's high reaching 0.8145. That keeps the pair below the upper end of the broader range and leaves buyers with more work to do. So, for now, the technical battle lines are well defined. The 100- and 200-hour moving averages provide close support, while the 0.8138-0.8151 swing area provides close resistance. Ultimately, if buyers are going to take firmer control, they need to get and stay above 0.8151. A sustained break above that level would strengthen the bullish bias and have traders looking toward the July swing highs near 0.8206. Conversely, a move back below the 100- and 200-hour moving averages at 0.8107 and 0.8101 would tilt the short-term bias back to the downside. That would put the 0.8060-0.8070 swing area back in play, followed by the lower end of the broader range near 0.8030. For now, the bias remains modestly in favor of the buyers because the price continues to hold above the key hourly moving averages. However, a break above 0.8151 is still needed to give the buyers greater control and open the door toward 0.8206. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
European shares close lower despite the US tech push higher
European shares are closing lower on the day, failing to follow the mostly positive tone in U.S. equities. The declines come despite the softer-than-expected U.S. PPI data, which showed headline producer prices unchanged in July versus a 0.2% increase expected, while the year-on-year rate slowed to 4.7% from 5.5%. The major European indices are ending the session with declines across the board: German DAX: 26,292.01, -0.15% France CAC 40: 8,650.57, -0.28% UK FTSE 100: 10,772.68, -0.56% Spain's Ibex: 20,168.60, -0.18% Italy's FTSE MIB: 53,668.60, -0.18% The FTSE 100 was the weakest of the major indices, with weakness in mining shares contributing to the decline. In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields are lower across the board, helped in part by the decline in oil prices: Germany: 3.134%, -3.4 basis points France: 3.947%, -4.1 basis points UK: 4.957%, -2.0 basis points Spain: 3.568%, -3.9 basis points Italy: 3.899%, -4.6 basis points Crude oil remains lower on the day, although it has recovered sharply from its session low. WTI fell to $80.09, breaking below its , but sellers could not sustain the downside momentum. The price has since snapped back higher and is trading around $82.56, down $0.65 on the day. Oil has been under pressure as demand concerns offset ongoing geopolitical supply risks. As London/European traders head for the exits, U.S. stocks are mixed but tilted to the upside, with the Dow the lone major index trading lower: Dow Industrial Average: 53,674.36, -0.19% S&P 500: 7,777.26, +0.37% Nasdaq Composite: 26,712.35, +0.47% Russell 2000: 3,048.22, +0.09% Nasdaq 100: 30,003.72, +0.88% The Nasdaq 100 is leading the gains and has pushed above the 30,000 level, while the S&P is also solidly higher following the softer PPI report. The S&P is on pace for a record close. U.S. Treasury yields are also moving lower across the curve: 2-year: 4.147%, -5.2 basis points 5-year: 4.320%, -5.5 basis points 10-year: 4.643%, -4.9 basis points 30-year: 5.212%, -3.6 basis points Overall, European traders are leaving behind a session characterized by lower European equities, falling global yields and weaker oil, while U.S. equities are taking a more positive view of the softer inflation data, particularly in the S&P and Nasdaq. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Sandisk surges as Investor Day impresses Wall Street
On the product side, Sandisk expects AI inference to significantly increase demand for flash storage in data centers, with the "enterprise data-center flash market potentially reaching 1.2 zettabytes by 2030". The company is "developing higher-density NAND and High Bandwidth Flash (HBF) technology to capture that growth". Sandisk is also moving toward longer-term customer agreements designed to provide greater revenue visibility and reduce the traditional volatility of the NAND business. Those agreements already cover about 50% of expected FY2027 bits and roughly two-thirds of FY2028 bits. For the stock, the financial targets are the key takeaway. For FY2028-FY2030, Sandisk expects: Mid-to-high teens revenue growth ~80% non-GAAP gross margins (high) ~75% non-GAAP operating margins Operating expenses of approximately 5% of revenue (low) ~50% adjusted free-cash-flow margins 100% of excess cash returned to shareholders after funding investment in the business The financial outlook is particularly bullish if Sandisk can deliver it. The combination of mid-to-high teens growth, 75% operating margins and 50% free-cash-flow margins would represent an exceptionally profitable model, while the commitment to return excess cash provides an additional potential catalyst for shareholders. From a technical perspective, the most important development is the move back above the 100-day moving average at $1,389.04. Staying above that moving average is paramount for the buyers. Since July 24, the price has moved below the 100-day moving average on three separate occasions, and each break led to increased downside momentum. With the price now back above the level, buyers have regained more control, but they will not want to see the stock slip back below it. For closer risk, traders can look toward the 200-hour moving average at $1,460.14. Staying above that level would keep the short-term technical bias tilted more firmly in favor of the buyers. On the topside, the next major target comes near $1,679.08, which represents the 50% retracement of the decline from the June 22 all-time high. That level is also near swing highs going back to July 23, increasing its technical importance. A move above — and importantly, the ability to stay above — $1,679.08 would be another bullish technical development and open the door for further upside momentum. So, the technical roadmap is becoming clearer: $1,460.14 is close risk, $1,389.04 is the key longer-term support, and $1,679.08 is the next major upside target. In the video above, I take a closer look at the technical levels driving today's sharp move and outline the key risks and targets traders should be watching going forward. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
AUDUSD is ticking to the upside helped by risk-on flows and technical breaks
More recently, the broader risk-on environment has provided some support for the Australian dollar. US equities are moving higher, with the Nasdaq up 1.03%, the Nasdaq 100 up 1.35%, and the S&P index trading at a new record high. At the same time, Treasury yields are moving sharply lower, with the 2-year yield down 6.7 basis points and the 10-year yield down 7.1 basis points. That combination has helped fuel renewed buying in the AUDUSD. Technically, the rebound has taken the price back above the key 100-day moving average at 0.7055 and the 100-hour moving average at 0.70598. That shifts the short-term technical picture back in the buyers' favor. The 100-day moving average at 0.7055 now becomes a key close-risk level for buyers. Staying above it keeps the buyers in play; a move back below would weaken the rebound and bring the 200-hour moving average at 0.7045 back into focus. Buyers are making a play. Can they keep the momentum going? On the topside, the next target comes at the 50% retracement of the move down from the May high at 0.70707. A break above that level would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door toward the swing highs from this week, culminating with yesterday’s high at 0.7091. For now, the failed break below the 200-hour moving average and the subsequent recovery above the 100-day and 100-hour moving averages have given buyers the advantage. The challenge is now to stay above those reclaimed technical levels and extend the move through 0.70707. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Crude oil price breaks lower and moves below the 100 hour MA
The move lower follows repeated failures earlier this week to sustain gains above the 50% retracement of the decline from the late-July high to the early-August low. That retracement comes in at $83.87 and has proven to be a key resistance level. The price reached $84.54 on Tuesday and $84.35 yesterday, but buyers could not extend the move higher. More importantly, after crude initially moved lower yesterday, the subsequent rebound stalled near the $83.87 retracement level. That failure gave sellers the go-ahead to push the price back to the downside, and the bearish momentum has continued into today's trading. The latest technical development is the break below the 100-hour moving average at $81.39. Staying below that moving average keeps the sellers firmly in control and shifts the focus toward the 200-hour moving average at $79.47. That represents the next key downside target. A break below the 200-hour moving average would increase the bearish bias further and open the door for additional selling, with the 200-day moving average at $76.66 becoming a more important longer-term target. There does not appear to be a specific headline catalyst driving today's decline. Instead, the move has been technically driven: buyers had their shots above the 50% retracement earlier this week and could not sustain the break. The subsequent failure at that level, followed by today's move below the 100-hour moving average, has shifted the technical advantage more firmly in favor of the sellers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
The sellers are holding the strongest hand in the USDCAD
In trading today, buyers made another attempt to wrestle back some control. The price moved above the falling 100-hour moving average and extended into the 1.3948 to 1.3966 swing area. However, that push ultimately failed. Sellers leaned against the resistance zone, stalled the advance, and turned the price back to the downside. In early North American trading, the USDCAD has now moved back below the falling 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.39383. That shifts the short-term technical bias more firmly in favor of the sellers and puts the focus once again on the 100-day moving average at 1.39186. That 100-day moving average remains the key technical hurdle for sellers. Yesterday, they were able to break below it, but they could not keep the price there. As a result, getting below the level is not enough. Sellers need to get and stay below the 100-day moving average to increase the bearish conviction and open the door for another leg to the downside. If that can be accomplished, the next targets would come near the 1.3900 natural support level and the 50% midpoint of the broader move. Getting below those levels would further strengthen the bearish technical picture and give sellers even more control. For now, the sellers are holding the strongest hand. They defended the 1.3948–1.3966 swing area, pushed the price back below the falling 100-hour moving average, and have the 100-day moving average back in their sights. However, to play that hand with greater confidence, they still need to break and stay below 1.39186. Do that, and the door opens for a move through 1.3900 and potentially toward lower targets. Fail again at the 100-day moving average, and buyers may once again be encouraged to step back in. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
US initial claims for the current week 209K vs 202K estimate
Prior week Initial claims 199K revised to 200K Initial claims 209K vs 202K estimate 4 week MA of initial claims 199K vs 199K prev. Continuing claims 1.777M vs 1.800M. Prior 1.799M 4 week MA of continuing claims 1.785M vs 1.791M last week. Looking at the trend the initial claims remains int he range indicative of a steady jobs market. No hire. No fire, continues to be the trend. These numbers reflect that dynamic. Versus a year ago: Initial claims 209K vs 224K last year Continuing claims are lower at 1.777M vs 1.942M last year. Overall that is more positive from that perspective. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Kickstart for August 12: USD steady as PPI takes center stage today in NA
2-year: 4.180%, -1.9 bps 5-year: 4.353%, -2.2 bps 10-year: 4.674%, -1.8 bps 30-year: 5.239%, -0.8 bp Dow: +141 points S&P 500: +6.25 points Nasdaq 100: +2.9 points That puts added importance on today's PPI report. The combination of the CPI and PPI data will give economists most of the pieces they need to construct estimates for the forthcoming PCE inflation report, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Following yesterday's CPI release, early estimates for monthly core PCE were running in a fairly wide range of roughly +0.16% to +0.23%. Today's PPI details—particularly the components that feed directly into PCE—should help narrow that range and give markets a clearer picture of the underlying inflation trend ahead of the next Fed decision. The current expectations from the market is a 40% chance for a tightening in September. That is down from 62% a week or so ago (before the US jobs data). In New Zealand, the RBNZ's inflation expectations survey showed a notable cooling in price expectations. One-year inflation expectations fell to 2.6% from 3.4%, while the two-year measure eased to 2.3% from 2.5%. The softer readings have trimmed expectations at the margin for an RBNZ rate hike in September and helped keep pressure on the New Zealand dollar. Meanwhile, Japan's producer inflation remains elevated despite coming in below expectations. July PPI rose 7.2% year over year versus 7.4% expected, while prices increased just 0.1% on the month versus 0.6% expected. The bigger concern for the BOJ remains imported inflation, with yen-based import prices up 29.1% from a year ago. With the yen remaining weak and import costs elevated, the report does little to eliminate the possibility of a BOJ rate hike in September. With inflation data and yields still driving expectations for central banks, today's PPI and claims data have the potential to shake up the early market picture. For traders, however, the roadmap remains the same: know the bias, define the risk and identify the targets. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar remains tentative, gold off the highs in post-CPI trading
Headlines: Markets: WTI crude oil down 2% to $81.58 CHF leads, NZD lags on the day European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2% Gold down 0.4% to $4,388 US 10-year yields down 1.7 bps to 4.675% Bitcoin down 0.2% to $63,387 This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
Stock Market Today: AI lead so far this week but Cisco may cool things down
Analysts and traders were jolly about the continued AI trade as others were thinking it's oversold. The bulls were good with AI stocks being in the green but Cisco which reported last night, temporarily broke up its all-time high but then sold off and is now over 6% down U.S. markets are starting Thursday with a slightly more positive tone after softer inflation data helped stocks and lowered Treasury yields. AI stocks remain one of the strongest parts of the market, but traders should still watch today’s U.S. PPI inflation report and the renewed risks coming from oil and geopolitics. What young traders and investors need to know today U.S. stocks are still being powered by AI The S&P 500 closed at 7,748.50, up 0.26%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.54% to 26,588.49. The Dow slipped 0.04%. Some AI-related stocks had much bigger moves: CoreWeave: about +19% Super Micro: about +19% Nebius: about +34% Nvidia: about +3% Micron: +4.9% The simple story is that investors are still willing to pay up for companies connected to AI infrastructure, chips, data centers and computing demand. What this means: A rising stock market does not mean every stock is rising equally. Right now, AI-related companies are doing much more of the heavy lifting. Softer inflation is helping stocks U.S. inflation came in slightly cooler than expected. July CPI increased only 0.1% from the previous month, while annual inflation slowed to 3.4% from 3.5%. That matters because the Federal Reserve uses inflation data when deciding whether interest rates need to stay high or move even higher. Markets now see roughly a 40% chance of a September Fed rate hike, down from about 54% one week ago. Why should stock investors care about interest rates? Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive for companies and consumers. They can also make bonds more attractive compared with stocks. That is especially important for fast-growing technology companies, because investors are often paying today for profits they expect many years into the future. Lower expected rates can therefore support technology and growth stocks. The next inflation test comes today with U.S. producer prices, or PPI. What is PPI? It measures changes in prices received by producers. Traders watch it because higher costs for companies can eventually reach consumers and keep inflation elevated. Treasury yields are moving slightly lower The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 4.68%, down slightly from Wednesday. Think of the 10-year yield as one of the most important interest rates in global markets. When Treasury yields rise sharply, stocks can come under pressure because investors suddenly have a more attractive low-risk alternative. When yields fall, growth stocks often get some breathing room. For young investors, this relationship is worth remembering: Higher yields can become a headwind for stocks. Lower yields can become a tailwind, especially for technology shares. The U.S. Dollar Index is near 99.96, while USD/JPY is around 159.33. Gold is taking a break after a strong rally Gold has pulled back slightly, with spot gold near $4,384 per ounce and December futures around $4,441. This looks more like profit-taking after a strong move than a major change in the gold story so far. Gold is still up more than 8% in August. Why has gold been strong? One reason is that lower expectations for additional Fed rate hikes can make gold more attractive. Gold does not pay interest, so when investors expect interest rates to stop rising, holding gold becomes relatively less expensive. Silver is trading around $65.09. Oil is falling, but it remains one of the biggest risks for markets Brent crude is near $87.95, while WTI is around $82.19. Oil is under pressure because expectations for global demand have weakened and U.S. crude inventories increased sharply. That is bearish for oil prices in the short term. But there is another side to the story. The unresolved U.S.-Iran dispute around the Strait of Hormuz remains an important upside risk. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important energy shipping routes in the world. If oil supplies through the region were seriously disrupted, crude prices could rise very quickly. And that would matter far beyond the oil market. Why should stock investors care about oil? Higher oil prices can increase transportation, manufacturing and energy costs across the economy. That can push inflation higher. If inflation rises again, the Fed may have less room to reduce interest rates and could even consider further tightening. So the chain can look like this: Oil rises sharply -> inflation risk rises -> Treasury yields may rise -> Fed expectations become more hawkish -> stocks can come under pressure. That is why oil may be one of the most important macro markets to watch right now. Wheat and food prices are another risk to watch The war around the Black Sea is also affecting agricultural markets. A Ukrainian strike on Novorossiysk, an important Russian grain-export hub, disrupted operations and helped push grain prices higher. At the same time, attacks and restrictions affecting Ukraine's Black Sea infrastructure have sharply reduced Ukrainian grain exports. This matters even if you never trade wheat. If grain prices remain high, the effects can eventually show up in everyday products such as: Bread Pasta Breakfast cereals Animal feed Meat and dairy production costs So when you see wheat futures moving because of Russia or Ukraine, remember that this is not only a trader story. It can eventually become a supermarket story. Cisco shows why good earnings are not always enough Cisco shares fell more than 4% after hours, even though the company reported strong growth and gave a solid revenue outlook. Cisco also said AI infrastructure orders from large cloud customers reached $4 billion during the quarter. So why did the stock fall? Because markets do not only react to whether results are "good." They react to whether results are better or worse than what investors already expected. Cisco had already risen more than 60% this year, so expectations were extremely high. Important investing lesson A company can report good earnings and still see its stock fall. If investors were already expecting amazing numbers, "very good" may not be good enough. The market trades the difference between expectations and reality. Cerebras gives young investors another lesson about AI stocks Cerebras shares fell about 16% after hours after quarterly revenue missed expectations. The company actually increased its full-year revenue forecast, but investors were also disappointed by weaker profit margins. This is another example of what can happen when a stock carries a very high valuation. When expectations are low, a company can sometimes rally on an average report. When expectations are extremely high, even a small disappointment can cause a large selloff. What this means: The faster a stock rises and the more excitement investors price into it, the less room there may be for mistakes. That is particularly important right now in AI stocks. The main market setup for today The current market picture is relatively supportive for stocks: Inflation has softened. Treasury yields have moved slightly lower. AI spending remains strong. Technology stocks continue to lead. But there are also risks. The S&P 500 is already near record levels, meaning investors have priced in a lot of good news. Today’s PPI inflation report is the next immediate test. And crude oil remains one of the biggest risks outside the stock market. If oil continues falling, that could help the inflation story. If geopolitical tensions suddenly push Brent sharply higher again, inflation fears could return very quickly. For traders and investors, that is the bigger lesson today: do not watch stocks in isolation. Watch inflation, Treasury yields and oil too, because they can change the entire market story. Mostly watch if Cisco stock sustains its post-earnings bearish move and how it affect other chip stocks. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.
Daily forex & trading digest.
The most useful 5 stories in this beat, every weekday at 7am local.