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Forex & Trading·Aug 13, 2026

Stock Market Today: AI lead so far this week but Cisco may cool things down

Analysts and traders were jolly about the continued AI trade as others were thinking it's oversold. The bulls were good with AI stocks being in the green but Cisco which reported last night, temporarily broke up its all-time high but then sold off and is now over 6% down U.S. markets are starting Thursday with a slightly more positive tone after softer inflation data helped stocks and lowered Treasury yields. AI stocks remain one of the strongest parts of the market, but traders should still watch today’s U.S. PPI inflation report and the renewed risks coming from oil and geopolitics. What young traders and investors need to know today U.S. stocks are still being powered by AI The S&P 500 closed at 7,748.50, up 0.26%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.54% to 26,588.49. The Dow slipped 0.04%. Some AI-related stocks had much bigger moves: CoreWeave: about +19% Super Micro: about +19% Nebius: about +34% Nvidia: about +3% Micron: +4.9% The simple story is that investors are still willing to pay up for companies connected to AI infrastructure, chips, data centers and computing demand. What this means: A rising stock market does not mean every stock is rising equally. Right now, AI-related companies are doing much more of the heavy lifting. Softer inflation is helping stocks U.S. inflation came in slightly cooler than expected. July CPI increased only 0.1% from the previous month, while annual inflation slowed to 3.4% from 3.5%. That matters because the Federal Reserve uses inflation data when deciding whether interest rates need to stay high or move even higher. Markets now see roughly a 40% chance of a September Fed rate hike, down from about 54% one week ago. Why should stock investors care about interest rates? Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive for companies and consumers. They can also make bonds more attractive compared with stocks. That is especially important for fast-growing technology companies, because investors are often paying today for profits they expect many years into the future. Lower expected rates can therefore support technology and growth stocks. The next inflation test comes today with U.S. producer prices, or PPI. What is PPI? It measures changes in prices received by producers. Traders watch it because higher costs for companies can eventually reach consumers and keep inflation elevated. Treasury yields are moving slightly lower The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 4.68%, down slightly from Wednesday. Think of the 10-year yield as one of the most important interest rates in global markets. When Treasury yields rise sharply, stocks can come under pressure because investors suddenly have a more attractive low-risk alternative. When yields fall, growth stocks often get some breathing room. For young investors, this relationship is worth remembering: Higher yields can become a headwind for stocks. Lower yields can become a tailwind, especially for technology shares. The U.S. Dollar Index is near 99.96, while USD/JPY is around 159.33. Gold is taking a break after a strong rally Gold has pulled back slightly, with spot gold near $4,384 per ounce and December futures around $4,441. This looks more like profit-taking after a strong move than a major change in the gold story so far. Gold is still up more than 8% in August. Why has gold been strong? One reason is that lower expectations for additional Fed rate hikes can make gold more attractive. Gold does not pay interest, so when investors expect interest rates to stop rising, holding gold becomes relatively less expensive. Silver is trading around $65.09. Oil is falling, but it remains one of the biggest risks for markets Brent crude is near $87.95, while WTI is around $82.19. Oil is under pressure because expectations for global demand have weakened and U.S. crude inventories increased sharply. That is bearish for oil prices in the short term. But there is another side to the story. The unresolved U.S.-Iran dispute around the Strait of Hormuz remains an important upside risk. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important energy shipping routes in the world. If oil supplies through the region were seriously disrupted, crude prices could rise very quickly. And that would matter far beyond the oil market. Why should stock investors care about oil? Higher oil prices can increase transportation, manufacturing and energy costs across the economy. That can push inflation higher. If inflation rises again, the Fed may have less room to reduce interest rates and could even consider further tightening. So the chain can look like this: Oil rises sharply -> inflation risk rises -> Treasury yields may rise -> Fed expectations become more hawkish -> stocks can come under pressure. That is why oil may be one of the most important macro markets to watch right now. Wheat and food prices are another risk to watch The war around the Black Sea is also affecting agricultural markets. A Ukrainian strike on Novorossiysk, an important Russian grain-export hub, disrupted operations and helped push grain prices higher. At the same time, attacks and restrictions affecting Ukraine's Black Sea infrastructure have sharply reduced Ukrainian grain exports. This matters even if you never trade wheat. If grain prices remain high, the effects can eventually show up in everyday products such as: Bread Pasta Breakfast cereals Animal feed Meat and dairy production costs So when you see wheat futures moving because of Russia or Ukraine, remember that this is not only a trader story. It can eventually become a supermarket story. Cisco shows why good earnings are not always enough Cisco shares fell more than 4% after hours, even though the company reported strong growth and gave a solid revenue outlook. Cisco also said AI infrastructure orders from large cloud customers reached $4 billion during the quarter. So why did the stock fall? Because markets do not only react to whether results are "good." They react to whether results are better or worse than what investors already expected. Cisco had already risen more than 60% this year, so expectations were extremely high. Important investing lesson A company can report good earnings and still see its stock fall. If investors were already expecting amazing numbers, "very good" may not be good enough. The market trades the difference between expectations and reality. Cerebras gives young investors another lesson about AI stocks Cerebras shares fell about 16% after hours after quarterly revenue missed expectations. The company actually increased its full-year revenue forecast, but investors were also disappointed by weaker profit margins. This is another example of what can happen when a stock carries a very high valuation. When expectations are low, a company can sometimes rally on an average report. When expectations are extremely high, even a small disappointment can cause a large selloff. What this means: The faster a stock rises and the more excitement investors price into it, the less room there may be for mistakes. That is particularly important right now in AI stocks. The main market setup for today The current market picture is relatively supportive for stocks: Inflation has softened. Treasury yields have moved slightly lower. AI spending remains strong. Technology stocks continue to lead. But there are also risks. The S&P 500 is already near record levels, meaning investors have priced in a lot of good news. Today’s PPI inflation report is the next immediate test. And crude oil remains one of the biggest risks outside the stock market. If oil continues falling, that could help the inflation story. If geopolitical tensions suddenly push Brent sharply higher again, inflation fears could return very quickly. For traders and investors, that is the bigger lesson today: do not watch stocks in isolation. Watch inflation, Treasury yields and oil too, because they can change the entire market story. Mostly watch if Cisco stock sustains its post-earnings bearish move and how it affect other chip stocks. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Forexlive7 min readSingle source
Stock Market Today: AI lead so far this week but Cisco may cool things down
Image · Forexlive
The gist
5-point summary · 1 min

Analysts and traders were jolly about the continued AI trade as others were thinking it's oversold. The bulls were good with AI stocks being in the green but Cisco which reported last night, temporarily broke up its all-time high but then sold off and is now over 6% down U.S. markets are starting Thursday with a slightly more positive tone after softer inflation data helped stocks and lowered Treasury yields. AI stocks remain one of the strongest parts of the market, but traders should still watch today’s U.S. PPI inflation report and the renewed risks coming from oil and geopolitics. What young traders and investors need to know today U.S. stocks are still being powered by AI The S&P 500 closed at 7,748.50, up 0.26%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.54% to 26,588.49. The Dow slipped 0.04%. Some AI-related stocks had much bigger moves: CoreWeave: about +19% Super Micro: about +19% Nebius: about +34% Nvidia: about +3% Micron: +4.9% The simple story is that investors are still willing to pay up for companies connected to AI infrastructure, chips, data centers and computing demand. What this means: A rising stock market does not mean every stock is rising equally. Right now, AI-related companies are doing much more of the heavy lifting. Softer inflation is helping stocks U.S. inflation came in slightly cooler than expected. July CPI increased only 0.1% from the previous month, while annual inflation slowed to 3.4% from 3.5%. That matters because the Federal Reserve uses inflation data when deciding whether interest rates need to stay high or move even higher. Markets now see roughly a 40% chance of a September Fed rate hike, down from about 54% one week ago. Why should stock investors care about interest rates? Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive for companies and consumers. They can also make bonds more attractive compared with stocks. That is especially important for fast-growing technology companies, because investors are often paying today for profits they expect many years into the future. Lower expected rates can therefore support technology and growth stocks. The next inflation test comes today with U.S. producer prices, or PPI. What is PPI? It measures changes in prices received by producers. Traders watch it because higher costs for companies can eventually reach consumers and keep inflation elevated. Treasury yields are moving slightly lower The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 4.68%, down slightly from Wednesday. Think of the 10-year yield as one of the most important interest rates in global markets. When Treasury yields rise sharply, stocks can come under pressure because investors suddenly have a more attractive low-risk alternative. When yields fall, growth stocks often get some breathing room. For young investors, this relationship is worth remembering: Higher yields can become a headwind for stocks. Lower yields can become a tailwind, especially for technology shares. The U.S. Dollar Index is near 99.96, while USD/JPY is around 159.33. Gold is taking a break after a strong rally Gold has pulled back slightly, with spot gold near $4,384 per ounce and December futures around $4,441. This looks more like profit-taking after a strong move than a major change in the gold story so far. Gold is still up more than 8% in August. Why has gold been strong? One reason is that lower expectations for additional Fed rate hikes can make gold more attractive. Gold does not pay interest, so when investors expect interest rates to stop rising, holding gold becomes relatively less expensive. Silver is trading around $65.09. Oil is falling, but it remains one of the biggest risks for markets Brent crude is near $87.95, while WTI is around $82.19. Oil is under pressure because expectations for global demand have weakened and U.S. crude inventories increased sharply. That is bearish for oil prices in the short term. But there is another side to the story. The unresolved U.S.-Iran dispute around the Strait of Hormuz remains an important upside risk. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important energy shipping routes in the world. If oil supplies through the region were seriously disrupted, crude prices could rise very quickly. And that would matter far beyond the oil market. Why should stock investors care about oil? Higher oil prices can increase transportation, manufacturing and energy costs across the economy. That can push inflation higher. If inflation rises again, the Fed may have less room to reduce interest rates and could even consider further tightening. So the chain can look like this: Oil rises sharply -> inflation risk rises -> Treasury yields may rise -> Fed expectations become more hawkish -> stocks can come under pressure. That is why oil may be one of the most important macro markets to watch right now. Wheat and food prices are another risk to watch The war around the Black Sea is also affecting agricultural markets. A Ukrainian strike on Novorossiysk, an important Russian grain-export hub, disrupted operations and helped push grain prices higher. At the same time, attacks and restrictions affecting Ukraine's Black Sea infrastructure have sharply reduced Ukrainian grain exports. This matters even if you never trade wheat. If grain prices remain high, the effects can eventually show up in everyday products such as: Bread Pasta Breakfast cereals Animal feed Meat and dairy production costs So when you see wheat futures moving because of Russia or Ukraine, remember that this is not only a trader story. It can eventually become a supermarket story. Cisco shows why good earnings are not always enough Cisco shares fell more than 4% after hours, even though the company reported strong growth and gave a solid revenue outlook. Cisco also said AI infrastructure orders from large cloud customers reached $4 billion during the quarter. So why did the stock fall? Because markets do not only react to whether results are "good." They react to whether results are better or worse than what investors already expected. Cisco had already risen more than 60% this year, so expectations were extremely high. Important investing lesson A company can report good earnings and still see its stock fall. If investors were already expecting amazing numbers, "very good" may not be good enough. The market trades the difference between expectations and reality. Cerebras gives young investors another lesson about AI stocks Cerebras shares fell about 16% after hours after quarterly revenue missed expectations. The company actually increased its full-year revenue forecast, but investors were also disappointed by weaker profit margins. This is another example of what can happen when a stock carries a very high valuation. When expectations are low, a company can sometimes rally on an average report. When expectations are extremely high, even a small disappointment can cause a large selloff. What this means: The faster a stock rises and the more excitement investors price into it, the less room there may be for mistakes. That is particularly important right now in AI stocks. The main market setup for today The current market picture is relatively supportive for stocks: Inflation has softened. Treasury yields have moved slightly lower. AI spending remains strong. Technology stocks continue to lead. But there are also risks. The S&P 500 is already near record levels, meaning investors have priced in a lot of good news. Today’s PPI inflation report is the next immediate test. And crude oil remains one of the biggest risks outside the stock market. If oil continues falling, that could help the inflation story. If geopolitical tensions suddenly push Brent sharply higher again, inflation fears could return very quickly. For traders and investors, that is the bigger lesson today: do not watch stocks in isolation. Watch inflation, Treasury yields and oil too, because they can change the entire market story. Mostly watch if Cisco stock sustains its post-earnings bearish move and how it affect other chip stocks. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

  • July CPI increased only 0.1% from the previous month, while annual inflation slowed to 3.4% from 3.5%.
  • Markets now see roughly a 40% chance of a September Fed rate hike, down from about 54% one week ago.
  • Gold is taking a break after a strong rally Gold has pulled back slightly, with spot gold near $4,384 per ounce and December futures around $4,441.
  • Cisco shows why good earnings are not always enough Cisco shares fell more than 4% after hours, even though the company reported strong growth and gave a solid revenue outlook.
  • Cerebras gives young investors another lesson about AI stocks Cerebras shares fell about 16% after hours after quarterly revenue missed expectations.
$4,384$4,441$65.09$87.95$82.19$4 billion
In this article

Analysts and traders were jolly about the continued AI trade as others were thinking it's oversold. The bulls were good with AI stocks being in the green but Cisco which reported last night, temporarily broke up its all-time high but then sold off and is now over 6% down U.S. markets are starting Thursday with a slightly more positive tone after softer inflation data helped stocks and lowered Treasury yields. AI stocks remain one of the strongest parts of the market, but traders should still watch today’s U.S. PPI inflation report and the renewed risks coming from oil and geopolitics. What young traders and investors need to know today U.S. stocks are still being powered by AI The S&P 500 closed at 7,748.50, up 0.26%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.54% to 26,588.49. The Dow slipped 0.04%. Some AI-related stocks had much bigger moves: CoreWeave: about +19% Super Micro: about +19% Nebius: about +34% Nvidia: about +3% Micron: +4.9% The simple story is that investors are still willing to pay up for companies connected to AI infrastructure, chips, data centers and computing demand. What this means: A rising stock market does not mean every stock is rising equally. Right now, AI-related companies are doing much more of the heavy lifting. Softer inflation is helping stocks U.S. inflation came in slightly cooler than expected. July CPI increased only 0.1% from the previous month, while annual inflation slowed to 3.4% from 3.5%. That matters because the Federal Reserve uses inflation data when deciding whether interest rates need to stay high or move even higher. Markets now see roughly a 40% chance of a September Fed rate hike, down from about 54% one week ago. Why should stock investors care about interest rates? Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive for companies and consumers. They can also make bonds more attractive compared with stocks. That is especially important for fast-growing technology companies, because investors are often paying today for profits they expect many years into the future. Lower expected rates can therefore support technology and growth stocks. The next inflation test comes today with U.S. producer prices, or PPI. What is PPI? It measures changes in prices received by producers. Traders watch it because higher costs for companies can eventually reach consumers and keep inflation elevated. Treasury yields are moving slightly lower The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 4.68%, down slightly from Wednesday. Think of the 10-year yield as one of the most important interest rates in global markets. When Treasury yields rise sharply, stocks can come under pressure because investors suddenly have a more attractive low-risk alternative. When yields fall, growth stocks often get some breathing room. For young investors, this relationship is worth remembering: Higher yields can become a headwind for stocks. Lower yields can become a tailwind, especially for technology shares. The U.S. Dollar Index is near 99.96, while USD/JPY is around 159.33. Gold is taking a break after a strong rally Gold has pulled back slightly, with spot gold near $4,384 per ounce and December futures around $4,441. This looks more like profit-taking after a strong move than a major change in the gold story so far. Gold is still up more than 8% in August. Why has gold been strong? One reason is that lower expectations for additional Fed rate hikes can make gold more attractive. Gold does not pay interest, so when investors expect interest rates to stop rising, holding gold becomes relatively less expensive. Silver is trading around $65.09. Oil is falling, but it remains one of the biggest risks for markets Brent crude is near $87.95, while WTI is around $82.19. Oil is under pressure because expectations for global demand have weakened and U.S. crude inventories increased sharply. That is bearish for oil prices in the short term. But there is another side to the story. The unresolved U.S.-Iran dispute around the Strait of Hormuz remains an important upside risk. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important energy shipping routes in the world. If oil supplies through the region were seriously disrupted, crude prices could rise very quickly. And that would matter far beyond the oil market. Why should stock investors care about oil? Higher oil prices can increase transportation, manufacturing and energy costs across the economy. That can push inflation higher. If inflation rises again, the Fed may have less room to reduce interest rates and could even consider further tightening. So the chain can look like this: Oil rises sharply -> inflation risk rises -> Treasury yields may rise -> Fed expectations become more hawkish -> stocks can come under pressure. That is why oil may be one of the most important macro markets to watch right now. Wheat and food prices are another risk to watch The war around the Black Sea is also affecting agricultural markets. A Ukrainian strike on Novorossiysk, an important Russian grain-export hub, disrupted operations and helped push grain prices higher. At the same time, attacks and restrictions affecting Ukraine's Black Sea infrastructure have sharply reduced Ukrainian grain exports. This matters even if you never trade wheat. If grain prices remain high, the effects can eventually show up in everyday products such as: Bread Pasta Breakfast cereals Animal feed Meat and dairy production costs So when you see wheat futures moving because of Russia or Ukraine, remember that this is not only a trader story. It can eventually become a supermarket story. Cisco shows why good earnings are not always enough Cisco shares fell more than 4% after hours, even though the company reported strong growth and gave a solid revenue outlook. Cisco also said AI infrastructure orders from large cloud customers reached $4 billion during the quarter. So why did the stock fall? Because markets do not only react to whether results are "good." They react to whether results are better or worse than what investors already expected. Cisco had already risen more than 60% this year, so expectations were extremely high. Important investing lesson A company can report good earnings and still see its stock fall. If investors were already expecting amazing numbers, "very good" may not be good enough. The market trades the difference between expectations and reality. Cerebras gives young investors another lesson about AI stocks Cerebras shares fell about 16% after hours after quarterly revenue missed expectations. The company actually increased its full-year revenue forecast, but investors were also disappointed by weaker profit margins. This is another example of what can happen when a stock carries a very high valuation. When expectations are low, a company can sometimes rally on an average report. When expectations are extremely high, even a small disappointment can cause a large selloff. What this means: The faster a stock rises and the more excitement investors price into it, the less room there may be for mistakes. That is particularly important right now in AI stocks. The main market setup for today The current market picture is relatively supportive for stocks: Inflation has softened. Treasury yields have moved slightly lower. AI spending remains strong. Technology stocks continue to lead. But there are also risks. The S&P 500 is already near record levels, meaning investors have priced in a lot of good news. Today’s PPI inflation report is the next immediate test. And crude oil remains one of the biggest risks outside the stock market. If oil continues falling, that could help the inflation story. If geopolitical tensions suddenly push Brent sharply higher again, inflation fears could return very quickly. For traders and investors, that is the bigger lesson today: do not watch stocks in isolation. Watch inflation, Treasury yields and oil too, because they can change the entire market story. Mostly watch if Cisco stock sustains its post-earnings bearish move and how it affect other chip stocks. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Integrity note  ·  Xela does not rewrite or paraphrase article content. The excerpt above is the source publication's own words, sanitized for display. For the full piece — including any quotes, charts, or images — read it at Forexlive. Xela's rewritten version is off for this story, so there's no editorial angle attached — you're getting the source's reporting unfiltered. When the rewrite is on, we add a What this means block underneath with the operator/trader takeaway.

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China delays July economic data release to late afternoon slot
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China delays July economic data release to late afternoon slot

The unexpected delay of China’s monthly data drop shifts market risk into the Asian afternoon session, while setting up European markets for a volatile opening. Investors face potential positioning shifts across industrial commodities like copper and crude oil, which remain sensitive to Chinese demand signals. A confirmation of economic cooling could pressure regional equity indexes and the yuan, while reinforcing expectations for swift central bank intervention. China’s unusual scheduling shift for key July economic metrics puts traders on high alert for soft growth data and potential central bank easing. Summary: The National Bureau of Statistics revised its release schedule for July economic figures to 3:00 p.m. Beijing time on Monday. The upcoming data package includes key monthly indicators for industrial production, retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and real estate prices. Industrial output is expected to show deceleration from June, while overall investment remains constrained by ongoing property sector softness. Prior figures showed producer price inflation dropping to a three-month low of 3.5% in July alongside easing consumer price pressures. Markets expect retail sales to show relative resilience, bolstered by consumer trade-in initiatives launched by Beijing. Weak performance across key indicators could compel the People’s Bank of China to deploy reserve requirement cuts or interest rate reductions. China has altered the release schedule for its July economic indicators and associated news briefing on Monday, introducing an unexpected twist for global financial markets as investors seek clarity on the country’s growth momentum entering the second half of the year. The National Bureau of Statistics adjusted the timing of its monthly data drop to 3:00 p.m. Beijing time, pushing the figures into the afternoon trading window in Asia while aligning with early morning activity in Europe and pre-market preparation in North America. The data package covers core measures of economic health, including industrial output, retail sales, fixed-asset capital allocation, and residential property prices. Expectations lean toward a softer set of figures following weakness in recent price metrics. Producer price inflation dropped to a three-month low of 3.5% in July, while consumer price metrics also pointed to muted domestic demand. Factory activity is projected to show a slowdown compared to June levels, and fixed-asset investment continues to contend with headwinds stemming from a multi-year downturn in real estate development. Conversely, retail performance may provide a modest buffer, supported by targeted government policies aimed at stimulating consumer goods trade-ins. The decision by Beijing authorities to shift the timing of the briefing, as reported by Bloomberg, highlights the significance of the upcoming metrics for policy sentiment. Financial institutions note that a confirmation of broader deceleration could prompt the People’s Bank of China to implement additional monetary easing, including cuts to benchmark interest rates or reductions in bank reserve requirements, to ensure full-year targets remain achievable. --- Beijing Time is UTC/GMT+8. In August, the US is on Daylight Saving Time (EDT, which is UTC-4). 3:00 p.m. Beijing Time = 07:00 GMT (8 hours behind Beijing) = 3:00 a.m. US Eastern Time (EDT) (12 hours behind Beijing). The traditional morning release slot (typically 10:00 a.m. Beijing time) corresponds to 02:00 GMT / 10:00 p.m. US Eastern Time (previous day). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ForexliveSingle source
investingLive Americas FX news wrap 14 Aug: Stocks finish mixed as yields rise and the dollar falls
·

investingLive Americas FX news wrap 14 Aug: Stocks finish mixed as yields rise and the dollar falls

As Yogi Berra once said, "It ain't over until it is over". Welll it is over. The week is over. For the day, the U.S. stocks finished mostly lower on Friday, but the declines were modest as the major indices wrapped up a mixed week. The S&P 500 reached a new record high during the week before backing off into the Friday close, while small caps were the standout performer. The Russell 2000 rose 0.51% on the day and closed at a new record high. Dow industrial average: 53,737.38, -108.01 points or -0.20% S&P 500: 7,785.75, -13.23 points or -0.17% Nasdaq composite: 26,729.16, -73.86 points or -0.28% Russell 2000: 3,068.42, +15.59 points or +0.51% Nasdaq 100: 30,046.14, -38.36 points or -0.13% For the week, the Dow was the only major index to finish lower, while the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 led the gains: Dow: -0.56% S&P 500: +0.36% Nasdaq: +0.14% Russell 2000: +1.11% Nasdaq 100: +1.09% The modest weakness in stocks came despite a softer U.S. dollar. The greenback moved lower against all of the major currencies, with the largest declines coming against the NZD and CAD. The weaker dollar followed a disappointing U.S. retail sales report that added another question mark over the strength of the U.S. consumer. The percentage changes versus the dollar showed: EUR: +0.36% JPY: +0.11% GBP: +0.33% CHF: +0.09% CAD: +0.42% AUD: +0.38% NZD: +0.65% The NZD was the strongest of the major currencies, while the JPY and CHF posted the smallest gains versus the dollar. The economic catalyst for much of the dollar weakness came from July retail sales. Headline sales fell 0.6%, well below expectations for a 0.1% increase and following a 0.2% gain in June. Excluding autos, sales fell 0.3%, while the important retail control group declined 0.4%. It was the first monthly decline in headline retail sales in nine months. There were some pockets of strength underneath the headline. Building-material sales rose 0.3%, while food services and drinking places increased 0.5%. However, motor vehicles and parts fell 1.8%, electronics sales declined 0.5%, and non-store retailers dropped 2.2%. One month does not make a trend, but the report puts a dent in the idea that the U.S. consumer will continue to spend at a solid pace as long as the labor market remains relatively stable. Adding to the softer consumer picture was the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for August. Sentiment fell to 51.0 from 55.2 in July and was well below the 54.5 expected. Current conditions fell to 51.8 versus 55.0 expected, while expectations dropped to 50.6 versus 55.2 expected. Inflation expectations were less encouraging. One-year expectations edged higher to 4.3% from 4.2%, while five-year expectations remained elevated at 3.3%. That leaves the Fed looking at a somewhat uncomfortable combination of weaker consumer readings but inflation expectations that remain above desired levels. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee played down the significance of one weak retail sales report, saying U.S. GDP and the labor market remain basically stable. He said continued weakness in spending could become concerning, but emphasized the need for more data. Goolsbee also said he was encouraged by the recent CPI reports. Goolsbee raised another interesting issue for markets, pointing to weakness in recent productivity readings. If that weakness persists, it could complicate the inflation outlook and potentially challenge some of the optimism surrounding the productivity benefits expected from AI investment. While the dollar weakened on the softer economic data, U.S. yields finished higher from the levels shown late in the session. Using the 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year maturities as proxies for the curve: 2-year: 4.171%, +3.1 basis points 5-year: 4.362%, +4.9 basis points 10-year: 4.692%, +5.1 basis points 30-year: 5.260%, +4.9 basis points The larger increases farther out the curve resulted in a modest steepening from the 2-year through the longer maturities. The pressure on longer-term yields remains an important issue for equities, particularly with valuations elevated and markets continuing to weigh inflation, energy prices and the enormous capital spending associated with the AI buildout. The rise in yields was not confined to the U.S. European benchmark yields also jumped sharply Friday, and that helped put some pressure on equities across the region. European shares closed mostly lower, although Germany's DAX bucked the trend: German DAX: +0.51% at 26,432.87 France CAC 40: -0.16% at 8,636.81 UK FTSE 100: -0.21% at 10,750.12 Spain Ibex: -0.06% at 20,156.61 Italy FTSE MIB: -0.20% at 53,583.60 The moves in European 10-year yields were considerably larger: Germany: 3.205%, +7.1 basis points France: 4.048%, +9.9 basis points UK: 5.042%, +9.0 basis points Spain: 3.652%, +8.4 basis points Italy: 3.990%, +9.3 basis points In other markets, crude oil was a notable winner, while gold and silver also moved higher. Bitcoin moved in the opposite direction: Crude oil: $82.38, +$1.13 or +1.39% Gold: $4,376.16, +$26.14 or +0.60% Silver: $64.71, +$0.24 or +0.37% Bitcoin: $62,855, -$563 or -0.89% So the week ends with a number of competing signals for traders to digest. The S&P 500 reached another record during the week but could not hold onto the momentum Friday. The Russell 2000, meanwhile, ended at a record, suggesting the equity rally continues to broaden beyond the mega-cap names. At the same time, retail sales and consumer sentiment raised questions about the strength of the U.S. consumer, the dollar weakened, oil moved higher, and global bond yields remain a potential headwind. That combination sets up another interesting week ahead as traders continue to balance growth, inflation and Fed expectations against equity markets that remain near record levels.Thank you for your support. Hope you have a good and safe weekend. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

ForexliveSingle source
Trump: Pretty soon will be declaring Strait of Hormuz territory of the US
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Trump: Pretty soon will be declaring Strait of Hormuz territory of the US

Trump is speaking and says: Pretty soon he'll be declaring the Strait of Hormuz territory of the US. Warned that Iranian aggression would be met with response hundred times harder and emphasized that the US only permits vessels to enter the Strait at its discretion. Calls the blockade is unstoppable US to pay a tiny little price for gasoline. Says he will hit Iran hard economically. Does not care if hitting the Iran economy before midterms This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

ForexliveSingle source
EURUSD backs off from the 50% midpoint target at 1.1585. What next?
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EURUSD backs off from the 50% midpoint target at 1.1585. What next?

For the second Friday in a row, the pair broke above its 100-day moving average, only to struggle to sustain momentum. This time, buyers pushed the price into the next key target area near 1.1586, where the top of a swing area converges with the 50% retracement. The high reached 1.1585, virtually testing that level to the pip, before buyers turned to sellers. The subsequent reversal has taken the EURUSD back below the 100-day moving average, once again putting the upside move in jeopardy. That price action has an eerily similar feel to last Friday. The EURUSD also moved above the 100-day moving average then, but the breakout failed. That failure helped trigger the decline that ultimately took the pair to 1.1511 yesterday. Importantly, that low remained above the key swing support surrounding the 1.1500 level. As trading winds down for the week, the 100-day moving average remains the key barometer. A close near that level effectively passes the decision to next week, with traders likely to use it as the dividing line between a more bullish and bearish technical bias. On the topside, a move back above the 100-day MA would put 1.1586 back in focus. A sustained break above that level would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door toward the 200-day moving average at 1.1627. Conversely, staying below the 100-day MA would keep the buyers on the defensive. The next downside targets would be the 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.1539, followed by 1.1524. A break below those levels would shift the focus back toward the key 1.1498–1.1506 swing area. For now, the 100-day moving average is the battleground. Above it, buyers get another opportunity. Below it, the risk increases that Friday's breakout becomes another failed attempt. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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