Kickstart for August 12: USD steady as PPI takes center stage today in NA

2-year: 4.180%, -1.9 bps 5-year: 4.353%, -2.2 bps 10-year: 4.674%, -1.8 bps 30-year: 5.239%, -0.8 bp Dow: +141 points S&P 500: +6.25 points Nasdaq 100: +2.9 points That puts added importance on today's PPI report. The combination of the CPI and PPI data will give economists most of the pieces they need to construct estimates for the forthcoming PCE inflation report, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Following yesterday's CPI release, early estimates for monthly core PCE were running in a fairly wide range of roughly +0.16% to +0.23%. Today's PPI details—particularly the components that feed directly into PCE—should help narrow that range and give markets a clearer picture of the underlying inflation trend ahead of the next Fed decision. The current expectations from the market is a 40% chance for a tightening in September. That is down from 62% a week or so ago (before the US jobs data). In New Zealand, the RBNZ's inflation expectations survey showed a notable cooling in price expectations. One-year inflation expectations fell to 2.6% from 3.4%, while the two-year measure eased to 2.3% from 2.5%. The softer readings have trimmed expectations at the margin for an RBNZ rate hike in September and helped keep pressure on the New Zealand dollar. Meanwhile, Japan's producer inflation remains elevated despite coming in below expectations. July PPI rose 7.2% year over year versus 7.4% expected, while prices increased just 0.1% on the month versus 0.6% expected. The bigger concern for the BOJ remains imported inflation, with yen-based import prices up 29.1% from a year ago. With the yen remaining weak and import costs elevated, the report does little to eliminate the possibility of a BOJ rate hike in September. With inflation data and yields still driving expectations for central banks, today's PPI and claims data have the potential to shake up the early market picture. For traders, however, the roadmap remains the same: know the bias, define the risk and identify the targets. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

ForexliveAug 132 min readSingle source

Kickstart for August 12: USD steady as PPI takes center stage today in NA — Image · Forexlive

The gist

5-point summary · 1 min

2-year: 4.180%, -1.9 bps 5-year: 4.353%, -2.2 bps 10-year: 4.674%, -1.8 bps 30-year: 5.239%, -0.8 bp Dow: +141 points S&P 500: +6.25 points Nasdaq 100: +2.9 points That puts added importance on today's PPI report.
Following yesterday's CPI release, early estimates for monthly core PCE were running in a fairly wide range of roughly +0.16% to +0.23%.
The current expectations from the market is a 40% chance for a tightening in September.
July PPI rose 7.2% year over year versus 7.4% expected, while prices increased just 0.1% on the month versus 0.6% expected.
With the yen remaining weak and import costs elevated, the report does little to eliminate the possibility of a BOJ rate hike in September.

4.180%4.353%4.674%5.239%+0.16%+0.23%

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·Aug 16

China delays July economic data release to late afternoon slot

The unexpected delay of China’s monthly data drop shifts market risk into the Asian afternoon session, while setting up European markets for a volatile opening. Investors face potential positioning shifts across industrial commodities like copper and crude oil, which remain sensitive to Chinese demand signals. A confirmation of economic cooling could pressure regional equity indexes and the yuan, while reinforcing expectations for swift central bank intervention. China’s unusual scheduling shift for key July economic metrics puts traders on high alert for soft growth data and potential central bank easing. Summary: The National Bureau of Statistics revised its release schedule for July economic figures to 3:00 p.m. Beijing time on Monday. The upcoming data package includes key monthly indicators for industrial production, retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and real estate prices. Industrial output is expected to show deceleration from June, while overall investment remains constrained by ongoing property sector softness. Prior figures showed producer price inflation dropping to a three-month low of 3.5% in July alongside easing consumer price pressures. Markets expect retail sales to show relative resilience, bolstered by consumer trade-in initiatives launched by Beijing. Weak performance across key indicators could compel the People’s Bank of China to deploy reserve requirement cuts or interest rate reductions. China has altered the release schedule for its July economic indicators and associated news briefing on Monday, introducing an unexpected twist for global financial markets as investors seek clarity on the country’s growth momentum entering the second half of the year. The National Bureau of Statistics adjusted the timing of its monthly data drop to 3:00 p.m. Beijing time, pushing the figures into the afternoon trading window in Asia while aligning with early morning activity in Europe and pre-market preparation in North America. The data package covers core measures of economic health, including industrial output, retail sales, fixed-asset capital allocation, and residential property prices. Expectations lean toward a softer set of figures following weakness in recent price metrics. Producer price inflation dropped to a three-month low of 3.5% in July, while consumer price metrics also pointed to muted domestic demand. Factory activity is projected to show a slowdown compared to June levels, and fixed-asset investment continues to contend with headwinds stemming from a multi-year downturn in real estate development. Conversely, retail performance may provide a modest buffer, supported by targeted government policies aimed at stimulating consumer goods trade-ins. The decision by Beijing authorities to shift the timing of the briefing, as reported by Bloomberg, highlights the significance of the upcoming metrics for policy sentiment. Financial institutions note that a confirmation of broader deceleration could prompt the People’s Bank of China to implement additional monetary easing, including cuts to benchmark interest rates or reductions in bank reserve requirements, to ensure full-year targets remain achievable. --- Beijing Time is UTC/GMT+8. In August, the US is on Daylight Saving Time (EDT, which is UTC-4). 3:00 p.m. Beijing Time = 07:00 GMT (8 hours behind Beijing) = 3:00 a.m. US Eastern Time (EDT) (12 hours behind Beijing). The traditional morning release slot (typically 10:00 a.m. Beijing time) corresponds to 02:00 GMT / 10:00 p.m. US Eastern Time (previous day). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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·Aug 14

investingLive Americas FX news wrap 14 Aug: Stocks finish mixed as yields rise and the dollar falls

As Yogi Berra once said, "It ain't over until it is over". Welll it is over. The week is over. For the day, the U.S. stocks finished mostly lower on Friday, but the declines were modest as the major indices wrapped up a mixed week. The S&P 500 reached a new record high during the week before backing off into the Friday close, while small caps were the standout performer. The Russell 2000 rose 0.51% on the day and closed at a new record high. Dow industrial average: 53,737.38, -108.01 points or -0.20% S&P 500: 7,785.75, -13.23 points or -0.17% Nasdaq composite: 26,729.16, -73.86 points or -0.28% Russell 2000: 3,068.42, +15.59 points or +0.51% Nasdaq 100: 30,046.14, -38.36 points or -0.13% For the week, the Dow was the only major index to finish lower, while the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 led the gains: Dow: -0.56% S&P 500: +0.36% Nasdaq: +0.14% Russell 2000: +1.11% Nasdaq 100: +1.09% The modest weakness in stocks came despite a softer U.S. dollar. The greenback moved lower against all of the major currencies, with the largest declines coming against the NZD and CAD. The weaker dollar followed a disappointing U.S. retail sales report that added another question mark over the strength of the U.S. consumer. The percentage changes versus the dollar showed: EUR: +0.36% JPY: +0.11% GBP: +0.33% CHF: +0.09% CAD: +0.42% AUD: +0.38% NZD: +0.65% The NZD was the strongest of the major currencies, while the JPY and CHF posted the smallest gains versus the dollar. The economic catalyst for much of the dollar weakness came from July retail sales. Headline sales fell 0.6%, well below expectations for a 0.1% increase and following a 0.2% gain in June. Excluding autos, sales fell 0.3%, while the important retail control group declined 0.4%. It was the first monthly decline in headline retail sales in nine months. There were some pockets of strength underneath the headline. Building-material sales rose 0.3%, while food services and drinking places increased 0.5%. However, motor vehicles and parts fell 1.8%, electronics sales declined 0.5%, and non-store retailers dropped 2.2%. One month does not make a trend, but the report puts a dent in the idea that the U.S. consumer will continue to spend at a solid pace as long as the labor market remains relatively stable. Adding to the softer consumer picture was the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for August. Sentiment fell to 51.0 from 55.2 in July and was well below the 54.5 expected. Current conditions fell to 51.8 versus 55.0 expected, while expectations dropped to 50.6 versus 55.2 expected. Inflation expectations were less encouraging. One-year expectations edged higher to 4.3% from 4.2%, while five-year expectations remained elevated at 3.3%. That leaves the Fed looking at a somewhat uncomfortable combination of weaker consumer readings but inflation expectations that remain above desired levels. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee played down the significance of one weak retail sales report, saying U.S. GDP and the labor market remain basically stable. He said continued weakness in spending could become concerning, but emphasized the need for more data. Goolsbee also said he was encouraged by the recent CPI reports. Goolsbee raised another interesting issue for markets, pointing to weakness in recent productivity readings. If that weakness persists, it could complicate the inflation outlook and potentially challenge some of the optimism surrounding the productivity benefits expected from AI investment. While the dollar weakened on the softer economic data, U.S. yields finished higher from the levels shown late in the session. Using the 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year maturities as proxies for the curve: 2-year: 4.171%, +3.1 basis points 5-year: 4.362%, +4.9 basis points 10-year: 4.692%, +5.1 basis points 30-year: 5.260%, +4.9 basis points The larger increases farther out the curve resulted in a modest steepening from the 2-year through the longer maturities. The pressure on longer-term yields remains an important issue for equities, particularly with valuations elevated and markets continuing to weigh inflation, energy prices and the enormous capital spending associated with the AI buildout. The rise in yields was not confined to the U.S. European benchmark yields also jumped sharply Friday, and that helped put some pressure on equities across the region. European shares closed mostly lower, although Germany's DAX bucked the trend: German DAX: +0.51% at 26,432.87 France CAC 40: -0.16% at 8,636.81 UK FTSE 100: -0.21% at 10,750.12 Spain Ibex: -0.06% at 20,156.61 Italy FTSE MIB: -0.20% at 53,583.60 The moves in European 10-year yields were considerably larger: Germany: 3.205%, +7.1 basis points France: 4.048%, +9.9 basis points UK: 5.042%, +9.0 basis points Spain: 3.652%, +8.4 basis points Italy: 3.990%, +9.3 basis points In other markets, crude oil was a notable winner, while gold and silver also moved higher. Bitcoin moved in the opposite direction: Crude oil: $82.38, +$1.13 or +1.39% Gold: $4,376.16, +$26.14 or +0.60% Silver: $64.71, +$0.24 or +0.37% Bitcoin: $62,855, -$563 or -0.89% So the week ends with a number of competing signals for traders to digest. The S&P 500 reached another record during the week but could not hold onto the momentum Friday. The Russell 2000, meanwhile, ended at a record, suggesting the equity rally continues to broaden beyond the mega-cap names. At the same time, retail sales and consumer sentiment raised questions about the strength of the U.S. consumer, the dollar weakened, oil moved higher, and global bond yields remain a potential headwind. That combination sets up another interesting week ahead as traders continue to balance growth, inflation and Fed expectations against equity markets that remain near record levels.Thank you for your support. Hope you have a good and safe weekend. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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·Aug 14

Trump: Pretty soon will be declaring Strait of Hormuz territory of the US

Trump is speaking and says: Pretty soon he'll be declaring the Strait of Hormuz territory of the US. Warned that Iranian aggression would be met with response hundred times harder and emphasized that the US only permits vessels to enter the Strait at its discretion. Calls the blockade is unstoppable US to pay a tiny little price for gasoline. Says he will hit Iran hard economically. Does not care if hitting the Iran economy before midterms This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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·Aug 14

EURUSD backs off from the 50% midpoint target at 1.1585. What next?

For the second Friday in a row, the pair broke above its 100-day moving average, only to struggle to sustain momentum. This time, buyers pushed the price into the next key target area near 1.1586, where the top of a swing area converges with the 50% retracement. The high reached 1.1585, virtually testing that level to the pip, before buyers turned to sellers. The subsequent reversal has taken the EURUSD back below the 100-day moving average, once again putting the upside move in jeopardy. That price action has an eerily similar feel to last Friday. The EURUSD also moved above the 100-day moving average then, but the breakout failed. That failure helped trigger the decline that ultimately took the pair to 1.1511 yesterday. Importantly, that low remained above the key swing support surrounding the 1.1500 level. As trading winds down for the week, the 100-day moving average remains the key barometer. A close near that level effectively passes the decision to next week, with traders likely to use it as the dividing line between a more bullish and bearish technical bias. On the topside, a move back above the 100-day MA would put 1.1586 back in focus. A sustained break above that level would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door toward the 200-day moving average at 1.1627. Conversely, staying below the 100-day MA would keep the buyers on the defensive. The next downside targets would be the 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.1539, followed by 1.1524. A break below those levels would shift the focus back toward the key 1.1498–1.1506 swing area. For now, the 100-day moving average is the battleground. Above it, buyers get another opportunity. Below it, the risk increases that Friday's breakout becomes another failed attempt. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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