Gap between BTC investor costs hits $23,000

Bitcoin is currently trading near $63,780, with on-chain data painting a picture reminiscent of previous bear markets. Long-term investors have an average entry cost of $49,500, while short-term holders are in at an average of $72,500. According to analysts, the considerable gap between these two levels may signify that the current cycle is not yet over.Why do LTH and STH metrics matter?Technical analysis warns of deeper BTC dropsLatest price and trading volume data Why do LTH and STH metrics matter?On-chain analyst Darkfost highlighted that Bitcoin’s cyclical structure has remained intact so far, and the current bear market is not evolving much differently from past cycles. In previous downturns, long-term holders came under severe pressure, which was reflected in the narrowing of the cost difference between long- and short-term investors.Mini glossary: The realized price metric reflects the average acquisition cost of coins moved on-chain. LTH refers to long-term holders, while STH stands for investors who have held assets for a shorter period.Darkfost emphasized that Bitcoin’s cyclical pattern has so far persisted, suggesting that this bear market may unfold similarly to prior periods.Current data indicates a still-wide gap between these groups. The $49,500 average cost of long-term holders points to lower entry levels achieved during accumulation phases. In contrast, short-term holders have an average purchase price of $72,500, suggesting they bought in higher and may be more vulnerable to price pressure. According to Darkfost, in previous cycles the cost basis of short-term holders eventually dropped below that of long-term holders. After these levels crossed, the market often endured several months of weakness. However, in the current cycle, such a crossover has not yet occurred.Technical analysis warns of deeper BTC dropsIn a separate analysis, Crypto Lens suggested that Bitcoin’s recent rise up to $66,000 could be a bull trap within a broader downtrend. Crypto Lens is known for sharing technical and cyclical market insights on the crypto sector.Crypto Lens argued that the latest move up to $66,000 represents a temporary recovery, with the market likely positioned in the middle of the current bear cycle.According to this view, after rising from $63,000 to $66,000, the price could head down to the $53,000 and $48,000 levels. In a more pessimistic scenario, Bitcoin might fall to $43,000 and possibly $32,000. Three distinct scenarios were presented: a retreat to $48,000 within days, a drop to $43,000 in August, or in the harshest case, a fall to $32,000 in September.Latest price and trading volume dataAs of reporting, CoinGecko data shows Bitcoin trading at $63,781.20. The asset is up 0.53% over the last 24 hours and 5% in the past week. Trading volume stands at $23.5 billion.Despite recent price strength, both analyses caution investors to remain vigilant as the second half of the year approaches. The ongoing difference between long- and short-term investor costs continues to be a key indicator closely watched for signals on market direction.Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.