How prediction markets are pricing the battle between Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI

CryptopolitanMay 193 min readSingle source

The gist

5-point summary · 1 min

One market is focused on Anthropic’s valuation by the end of the year, with traders now estimating an 88% possibility that the company would achieve a $1 trillion valuation by December 31.
Additional contracts suggest a 94% chance that Anthropic will be worth more than OpenAI in 2026, as well as a 69% chance that Anthropic will enter the public markets before OpenAI.
Anthropic leads OpenAI with a 69% chance to IPO first on Polymarket Other cryptocurrency sites are also launching similar products.
In 2026 so far, users in the United States have placed about $39 billion in wagers on the platform.
Elon Musk’s business may shortly unveil its IPO intentions, with a target valuation of up to $1.75 trillion.

$5 trillion$1 trillion$39 billion$1.75 trillion$75 billion$95 billion

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Polymarket said on Tuesday that it will let users put bets on private company events such as valuations and IPO dates. The cryptocurrency-based platform worked with Nasdaq Private Market to verify the results of these new contracts. With more than 1,600 unicorns totaling more than $5 trillion, private companies are incredibly wealthy today. However, until the companies go public, ordinary investors are typically prohibited from investing. Anthropic and OpenAI are being considered as potential future possibilities, and companies like SpaceX may soon go public. The new prediction markets allow users to speculate on the future performance of private companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe, Databricks, and Kraken. One market is focused on Anthropic’s valuation by the end of the year, with traders now estimating an 88% possibility that the company would achieve a $1 trillion valuation by December 31. Additional contracts suggest a 94% chance that Anthropic will be worth more than OpenAI in 2026, as well as a 69% chance that Anthropic will enter the public markets before OpenAI. Anthropic leads OpenAI with a 69% chance to IPO first on Polymarket Other cryptocurrency sites are also launching similar products. Earlier this month, TradeXYZ on Hyperliquid introduced pre-IPO futures for companies like Cerebras and SpaceX, giving traders another chance to bet on high-profile private companies before they go public. Partnership focuses on data integrity and market resolution Nasdaq Private Market will provide the data used to settle the wagers, based on its surveillance of private companies including OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, and Ripple. Shayne Coplan, founder and CEO of Polymarket, stated that the launch provides access to a part of the financial markets that ordinary investors have long been barred from, allowing people to engage directly with the decisions that form the value of significant private companies for the first time. The collaboration links Nasdaq Private Market’s information on private share transactions with Polymarket’s event-based trading system. In addition to giving institutional investors a fresh measure of market sentiment to complement the current transaction data used across the financial sector, it allows consumers to speculate on verified outcomes involving private businesses. Polymarket has continued its rapid expansion, with new markets hitting record highs every month over the past year. In 2026 so far, users in the United States have placed about $39 billion in wagers on the platform. The agreement, according to Tom Callahan, CEO of Nasdaq Private Market, expands access to a broader set of market participants while reinforcing the company’s focus on accurate data to ensure fair and reliable market outcomes. SpaceX IPO could dominate market However, the launch coincides with a challenging period for businesses preparing to go public. The performance of new stocks varied wildly last year. On its first day, Navan fell 20% while Figma increased 250%. At year’s end, Gemini had dropped 65%, while Circle had increased 156%. Wall Street analysts believe SpaceX’s IPO will dominate the market and outshine rival listings. Elon Musk’s business may shortly unveil its IPO intentions, with a target valuation of up to $1.75 trillion. Samuel Kerr, who handles equity capital markets globally at Mergermarket, called the potential $75 billion SpaceX offering “otherworldly.” It would considerably outperform recent IPOs such as Cerebras Systems, which was valued at almost $95 billion last week. “There’s a possibility it could be a negative for the whole global IPO market,” Kerr told CNBC on Tuesday. The deal might “really suck all the oxygen out the room for anybody else. Everybody’s eyes are going to be on SpaceX.” With so much money flowing into one stock, “almost nothing’s going to want to be in the market at the same time,” he added. Salman Ahmed, the Global Head of Macro and Strategic Asset Allocation at Fidelity International, said that such large-scale listings could temporarily redirect capital away from the broader stock market. “They’ll have to suck in a lot of capital from the system,” Ahmed said, “and that’s why I think there’s another reason we have to be careful about the winners right now, because that’s where the capital is going to be pulled from to finance these mega IPOs.” The smartest crypto minds already read our newsletter. Want in? Join them.

Integrity note · Xela does not rewrite or paraphrase article content. The excerpt above is the source publication's own words, sanitized for display. For the full piece — including any quotes, charts, or images — read it at Cryptopolitan. Xela's rewritten version is off for this story, so there's no editorial angle attached — you're getting the source's reporting unfiltered. When the rewrite is on, we add a What this means block underneath with the operator/trader takeaway.

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Bitcoin stabilizes near $63,000, but reclaiming $64,000 is the real test Bitcoin is stabilizing near $63,100 after buyers defended the lower part of its recent range. That is constructive, but it is not yet a confirmed recovery. BTC must first overcome resistance near $63,175-$63,270, while reclaiming and holding $64,000-$64,095 remains the more important test. Key takeaways for Bitcoin traders and investors Current position: BTC is holding above the previous month’s lower value boundary near $62,380. Immediate resistance: Buyers need to clear $63,130-$63,175, followed by $63,247-$63,270. Main recovery test: A sustained reclaim of $64,000-$64,095 would carry much more weight than a temporary bounce near $63,000. Major support: The broader $62,380-$62,535 region remains the most important defended zone. Bullish confirmation: Repeated closes, consolidation or a successful retest above $64,095 would show that Bitcoin is beginning to establish higher accepted value. Data note: The latest daily, four-hour and one-hour candles were incomplete when this analysis was prepared. Exchange-specific Bitcoin prices may also differ slightly. I'm also closely monitoring the digital asset space after , putting immediate pressure on lower order-flow shelves as bulls fight to defend structural trendlines. Regulatory headwinds also resurfaced as the , injecting fresh institutional hesitation into active trading books. Meanwhile, broader risk sentiment showed divergence across asset classes as , underscoring rotational breadth away from mega-cap tech into small-cap momentum. Macro headwinds and geopolitical posturing remain front and center following headline chatter that , all while monetary policy uncertainty lingers after amidst baseline model variances. Why Bitcoin’s stabilization is constructive but incomplete Bitcoin recently fell to approximately $62,535, where the decline attracted meaningful buying. Price subsequently recovered toward $63,100, strengthening the case that buyers are willing to defend the lower part of the previous month’s trading range. What stands out to me, however, is how little upward progress followed that buying. Several periods showed positive buying pressure, but BTC remained concentrated around $63,050 and repeatedly struggled to extend beyond $63,150-$63,175. In simple terms, buyers have shown that they can slow the decline, but they have not yet shown that they can move Bitcoin into a clearly higher trading range. This is the difference between stabilization and recovery: Stabilization means sellers are no longer pushing price lower with the same ease. Recovery means buyers are lifting price, holding above resistance and shifting the market’s most active trading area higher. Bitcoin has shown the first condition. The second still needs confirmation. Why $62,380 and $64,095 matter The previous month’s value area provides a useful map of where most Bitcoin trading took place: Value Area Low near $62,380: The lower boundary of the previous month’s heavily traded range. Point of Control near $64,095: The price that attracted the most trading activity during the month. Value Area High near $65,050: The upper boundary of the previous month’s accepted range. BTC is currently about $720 above the monthly Value Area Low, but almost $1,000 below the monthly Point of Control. Holding above $62,380 tells us that demand inside the previous month’s range has not completely failed. Remaining below $64,095 tells us that buyers have not regained control of the broader value structure. This is also why $64,095 may be more important than $64,000 itself. The round number attracts attention, but $64,095 represents the previous month’s busiest price area. A brief move above $64,000 could still become another failed breakout. Holding above $64,095 would provide stronger evidence that the market is accepting higher prices again. As discussed in our previous analysis, Bitcoin’s created technical repair work for buyers. That repair is not complete simply because BTC has bounced from $62,535. Bitcoin support and resistance levels to watch What would strengthen the bullish Bitcoin scenario? Swing traders should have 3 key price levels: The Value Area Low (VAL), Point of Control (POC) and Value Area High (VAH) of the previous month. Together, these levels map the previous month’s main area of accepted trading: the VAL marks its lower boundary, the VAH its upper boundary, and the POC the price where the most volume traded. Traders watch them because holding inside the area suggests continued acceptance, while a sustained break outside it may signal that the market is searching for a new value zone. The first constructive step would be sustained trade above $63,175. Buyers would then need to clear and hold above $63,247-$63,270. That would improve the probability of a move toward $63,350 and, eventually, the much larger $64,000-$64,095 test. A more convincing recovery would include: Bitcoin reclaiming $64,000. Price moving above the monthly point of control near $64,095. A pullback successfully defending the reclaimed area. Trading activity beginning to concentrate above $64,095 rather than immediately slipping back below it. If that sequence develops, approximately $65,050 becomes the next major value-area objective. What this means: Acceptance is more than touching a level. It means price spends time above it, survives pullbacks and begins treating the higher area as support. What would weaken the stabilization attempt? Failure to hold $62,920-$62,800 would weaken the current short-term base and increase the probability of another test of $62,535. The more serious bearish development would be sustained trade below $62,380. That would place BTC outside the previous month’s accepted value area and suggest that the market may need to search for demand at lower prices. Traders should still distinguish between a brief move below $62,380 and genuine acceptance beneath it. Crypto markets can produce fast stop-runs through visible support before reversing. Repeated closes or continued trading below the level would carry more bearish significance than a momentary sweep. What Bitcoin traders may consider watching Different traders may use these levels in different ways, at their own discretion: Short-term breakout confirmation: Watch whether BTC can break above $63,175 and successfully retest it, with $63,247-$63,270 providing the next validation area. Support-zone reaction: If BTC returns to $62,380-$62,535, watch whether buyers defend it again or whether selling begins to hold below the zone. Broader recovery confirmation: Treat $64,000-$64,095 as the decisive recovery test instead of assuming that every bounce from $63,000 marks a durable bottom. Because Bitcoin trades continuously, weekend conditions can sometimes involve thinner liquidity and less reliable breakouts. Confirmation through time, repeated closes or a successful retest may therefore be more useful than reacting to the first price spike. What should Bitcoin traders watch next? Bitcoin has defended the lower part of the previous month’s value area, but the rebound still needs to prove itself. The immediate challenge is to move beyond $63,175 and $63,270. The much larger test remains $64,000-$64,095. A successful reclaim would indicate that Bitcoin is returning toward the center of the previous month’s accepted value rather than merely bouncing from support. Until that happens, Bitcoin may be stabilizing, but it is not yet showing a fully confirmed bullish recovery. This analysis presents conditional market scenarios and opinions (not promises) at investingLive.com, not a guarantee of future performance. Traders should consider volatility, position size and their own risk limits before acting. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

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