Securitize: A Crypto Use Case That Actually Works, And A Buy On Macro Tailwinds

Summary Securitize, soon to go public via a SPAC merger (CEPT), is the leading blockchain player in tokenizing real world assets (RWAs), with $3.4B tokenized AUM. I rate CEPT a BUY, supported by strong revenue growth, early signs of profitability, and most importantly a favorable macro/regulatory environment that can act as a growth catalyst. My investment thesis hinges on accelerating institutional adoption of RWAs, upcoming regulatory clarity, and Securitize's role as a core infrastructure provider. I think the current US admin's push for stablecoins (as buyers of US debt) is an important macro tailwind for Securitize, as tokenized RWAs can promote stablecoins usage. Key risks include uncertain regulatory timelines, RWA adoption pace, and the outcome of the June 29 shareholder vote for the SPAC merger. One frequent criticism of the cryptocurrency industry concerns the lack of “real” use cases for blockchain as a technology. Despite being more than a decade old, much of the cryptocurrency industry has failed to prove it serves any purpose beyond online “gambling” and limited DeFi (Decentralized Finance) applications. I believe that the core business of Securitize (tokenizing real world assets) is the most solid blockchain use case we have seen in the last decade after that of stablecoins. The company is, in my view, doing what NFTs promised back in 2021 (but could not do), positioning itself in a favorable macro and regulatory environment. With Securitize likely going public via a SPAC merger in less than a month, I think buying Cantor Equity Partners II, Inc. ( CEPT ) is an interesting bet on the blockchain as a technology. Securitize 101: The Link Between DeFi And TradFi The idea behind tokenizing RWAs (real world assets) is fairly simple: get an asset like a bond, a share, or a piece of real estate and create its digital record on a blockchain. Securitize collaborates with many established TradFi (traditional finance) institutions, such as BlackRock’s BUIDL, Apollo, Hamilton Lane, KKR, and NYSE-related initiatives. The company already has a solid business: for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, it reported $55.6 million in revenue, an 841% increase from $5.9 million in the same period of 2024. On a non-GAAP basis, they reported positive adjusted EBITDA for 2025. Securitize Securitize’s own quarter-end commentary said it ended the quarter with: [...] approximately breakeven operating cash flow before working capital movements and public-company related expenses. What’s The Point Of Tokenizing Real World Assets? The main idea behind tokenizing RWAs has to do with liquidity. Tokenizing RWAs turns hard-to-trade assets into cleaner, more divisible, more transferable financial products that are easier to distribute and administer. Tokenized assets enjoy characteristics such as 24/7 transferability, tighter compliance, smoother fund administration, and new collateral or settlement use cases. In this regard, I see the tokenization of RWAs as an evolution of what NFTs (Non Fungible Tokens) promised to do back in 2021, when.JPEGs files were selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars in what turned out to be a speculative bubble. The below table summarizes key asset-related metrics for Securitize, as of Q1 2026. Source is the company’s SEC filed documents. Metric Value (as of Q1 2026) Tokenized AUM $3.4 billion Assets Under Administration (AUA) $24.9 billion Cumulative trading volume $1.9 billion Active funds on platform 650 The bull case for Securitize is that if institutions keep moving funds, equities, and other regulated assets on-chain, the company can act as a “plumbing layer” that captures recurring fees from issuance, transfer agency, servicing, and asset administration. The bear case is that adoption may stay concentrated in a few flagship products, while regulation, custody, and distribution complexity slow broad monetization, leaving Securitize as a niche infrastructure provider rather than a scaled platform. Obviously, the company is painting a rosy picture when it comes to future growth, mentioning it expects $ 200 billion in AUM in the long term. That would represent a 60X on Q1 2026 figures. The entire market for RWAs at the time of writing is estimated at ~$ 24 billion. A Macro Tailwind: Tokenization Is All About US Debt I think the single strongest tailwind for a company like Securitize at the moment concerns US debt. Since the start of the current US administration, US debt has been under pressure. Foreign holdings of treasuries have been in decline, and so has been the share of federal debt held by the public (see charts below). The Economist Naturally, this administration has looked at stablecoins as a way to compensate for the lack of buyers of US debt abroad and at home. The GENIUS Act was just turned into law exactly to provide the regulatory clarity needed to accelerate stablecoin growth. There is only one problem, though: stablecoins have historically only grown AUM during Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) and crypto bull markets. Their market cap has actually been stagnant this year, as Bitcoin corrected more than 50% from its ATH (see below). DefiLama The Securitize Macro Bull Case Is Linked To Stablecoins For stablecoins to grow AUM (the ultimate objective of the government), there needs to be some demand for stablecoins. As this is not currently coming from crypto or bitcoin, RWAs represent in my view a real use case that can take over. I would expect broader RWA adoption to support stablecoin adoption, and likely lift stablecoin AUM. This would mostly happen as a second-order effect rather than a simple one-for-one driver, because RWAs need a settlement and collateral layer, and stablecoins are filling that role in tokenized Treasury, credit, and fund ecosystems. Further Regulatory Clarity Is Likely, And May Be The Catalyst The “low hanging fruit” for the sitting US admin to promote RWAs (and stablecoins) would be to push for a dedicated regulatory framework for RWAs. Tokenized securities today are still treated as securities, so issuers, broker-dealers, transfer agents, and trading venues still have to fit within the normal compliance stack. Back in April, the SEC signaled they were on the "cusp” of an “innovation exemption” for tokenized securities. However, more than two months later nothing specifically has yet been released in regards to tokenized security. I think that if a dedicated framework or exemption manifests in the upcoming weeks, this may work as a catalyst for Securitize. Price Targets: Why $12 Is A Decent Entry Point At the time of writing, CEPT is trading at ~$12 per share. With 182 million shares outstanding for the new entity, this would be a ~$2.1 billion valuation, assuming the deal goes through after the shareholders' vote on June 29. If one is to believe Securitize’s bullish predictions for the RWAs market, the company should 10X their AUM in 5 to 7 years (behind the RWA market reaching $400 billion by 2030 from roughly $24 billion today). What valuation the market may assign to a Securitize with $30+ billion in AUM varies depending on exact profitability metrics, which I think is too early to assess. The company is not profitable on a GAAP basis, but it does report break-even in cash flow and a net margin of ~24% on a non-GAAP basis. No matter the exact numbers, I think it is reasonable the company should eventually be valued between $4 billion to $8 billion, if revenue scales to that pace and profitability is confirmed. That would represent a 2x to 4x from current price levels, in a timeframe of half a decade, at the earliest. Given this represents good upside and considering the macro headwinds for the company, I rate CEPT a BUY today. Risks: Do We Believe In A Tokenized World? The main risk to a bullish thesis in Securitize ahead of its SPAC merger is that RWAs tokenization is still in its infancy. Extrapolating future growth figures from what we have seen in the past couple of years can be misleading. Growth figures today appear outstanding mostly because the starting point in 2024 was very low. It may very well be that growth is going to plateau in the upcoming months. In the case of Securitize, it will take in my view at least 2-3 quarters before investors can assess whether the company is growing anywhere near their optimistic projections for the industry. Much of the future growth in the tokenization of RWAs also depends on further regulatory clarity and potentially exemptions for tokenized assets within the SEC’s existing regulatory framework, which is impossible to predict as it ultimately depends on policy. Finally, there is also a company-specific risk in Securitize in that the company’s planned SPAC merger is still subject to a shareholder vote at the end of June. Obviously no bull case in buying CEPT today would exist if the vote is not passed. Conclusion Contrary to many other cryptocurrency / blockchain market narratives, I think the tokenization of RWAs offers a serious, real use case centered about increasing the liquidity of the trillions of illiquid assets in our financial system. Proof is that many respected TradFi institutions have jumped onto the trend and either launched or planned to launch tokenized assets. Importantly, tokenized RWAs also benefit from a clear regulatory framework stemming from the GENIUS Act, as well as strategic support from the current US administration. Given the positive macro context and the fact that Securitize is growing and showing the first signs of profitability, I rate an investment in CEPT today a BUY, ahead of its shareholders' vote on June 29th.