Standard Chartered And Galaxy Research Split Sharply Over Whether Bitcoin Has Bottomed

Two of crypto’s most closely watched research desks have reached opposite conclusions on Bitcoin’s cycle low. Standard Chartered says the bottom is already behind us, while Galaxy Research argues it is still ahead. Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital asset research, made his call in a Friday note. He wrote that the cycle low for Bitcoin (BTC) has likely already been set at fifty nine thousand dollars. That figure represents a fifty three percent drawdown from Bitcoin’s all time high near one hundred twenty six thousand dollars. Kendrick pointed to three catalysts behind the turn, including the SpaceX initial public offering on Nasdaq. He noted that some exchange traded fund holders sold positions to free up cash for the SpaceX listing. Falling oil prices and an anticipated Bitcoin purchase from Strategy were cited as the other supporting factors. Standard Chartered is watching for net positive spot Bitcoin exchange traded fund inflows as a confirmation signal. Renewed corporate treasury buying and continued declines in oil prices are the other signals on its checklist. The bank maintains a year end target of one hundred thousand dollars for Bitcoin and four thousand for Ethereum (ETH). Galaxy Research, led by Alex Thorn, reached a markedly different conclusion in a separate cycle study this week. Thorn argued that the traditional four year cycle is compressing, which shifts where the eventual floor sits. Galaxy’s base case places the bottom between forty thousand and forty six thousand dollars by late this year. The firm found that only four of thirteen historical indicators tied to past cycle bottoms have triggered so far. Bitcoin’s current decline of around fifty one percent remains shallower than the seventy seven to eighty five percent drops of past cycles. Galaxy also outlined a harsher scenario in which a deeper washout could push prices toward thirty to thirty seven thousand dollars. A milder outcome was also flagged, with steady buying potentially holding a floor near fifty one to fifty four thousand dollars. Despite their disagreement on timing and price levels, both firms reject the steep eighty percent style collapses of prior cycles. Bitcoin traded near sixty three thousand eight hundred dollars as the competing forecasts circulated among traders this weekend. The split highlights how differently major research desks are reading the same on chain and flow based data.