This Bitcoin’s scary timing could send BTC crashing to $41,000

FinboldMay 193 min readSingle source

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5-point summary · 1 min

Bitcoin ( BTC ) is flashing warning signs that closely resemble the setup that preceded the final leg of the 2018 bear market , raising the possibility of a correction toward the $41,000 region.
In this line, analysis by TradingShot shared in a TradingView post on May 18 shows Bitcoin facing a strong rejection at its 200-day moving average ( MA ) on the weekly timeframe near $81,000.
Data shared by Ali Martinez on May 19 and sourced from Glassnode highlights resistance at $78,258 and $84,569, while major support levels stand at $75,733 and $66,898.
Key levels for Bitcoin $BTC : • Resistance: $78,258, $84,569 • Support: $75,733, $66,898 pic.twitter.com/z1FedhfASf — Ali Charts (@alicharts) May 18, 2026 The biggest concentration of supply sits near $84,569, making it a key resistance zone.
Source: Finbold The asset is currently trading above its 50-day SMA of $75,645, suggesting short-term support remains intact, and buyers are still defending the recent trend.

$41,000$81,000$41,250,$78,258$84,569,$75,733

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Bitcoin ( BTC ) is flashing warning signs that closely resemble the setup that preceded the final leg of the 2018 bear market, raising the possibility of a correction toward the $41,000 region. In this line, analysis by TradingShot shared in a TradingView post on May 18 shows Bitcoin facing a strong rejection at its 200-day moving average ( MA ) on the weekly timeframe near $81,000. The rejection coincided with the largest bearish weekly candle in nearly two months, signaling renewed selling pressure after BTC attempted to recover from earlier lows. The outlook compares Bitcoin’s current market structure to the 2018 bear cycle, highlighting a similar rejection at the 1D MA200 roughly 220 days after the cycle top. Bitcoin seven-day price chart. Source: TradingView Notably, in 2018, BTC failed at the same resistance before entering a prolonged consolidation phase that later ended in capitulation and a cycle bottom. The weekly Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) was also rejected near the 51.50 level in both cycles, signaling weakening momentum. The 2018 setup led to weeks of sideways trading before a sharp sell-off followed. Now, the current structure suggests the cryptocurrency could enter a similar consolidation range before another leg lower. The analysis projects a potential decline toward the 1.5 Fibonacci extension near $41,250, identified as a possible bear market bottom. Key Bitcoin price levels to watch On the other hand, Bitcoin is also approaching a critical technical zone as traders monitor key support and resistance levels that could shape its next major move. Data shared by Ali Martinez on May 19 and sourced from Glassnode highlights resistance at $78,258 and $84,569, while major support levels stand at $75,733 and $66,898. The URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) chart shows where large amounts of Bitcoin supply last moved, revealing areas of heavy buying activity that often act as strong price barriers. Key levels for Bitcoin $BTC: • Resistance: $78,258, $84,569 • Support: $75,733, $66,898 pic.twitter.com/z1FedhfASf — Ali Charts (@alicharts) May 18, 2026 The biggest concentration of supply sits near $84,569, making it a key resistance zone. A breakout above that level could strengthen bullish momentum, while failure to reclaim it may leave Bitcoin stuck in consolidation. On the downside, $75,733 is the nearest support level with notable buying interest. If that area breaks, the next major demand zone sits around $66,898, where another large group of holders accumulated BTC. The data also shows thinner supply gaps between some levels, suggesting Bitcoin could see increased volatility once price breaks decisively in either direction. Bitcoin price analysis By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $76,939, up 0.2% in the past 24 hours, though BTC remains down 4.5% on the weekly timeframe. Bitcoin seven-day price chart. Source: Finbold The asset is currently trading above its 50-day SMA of $75,645, suggesting short-term support remains intact, and buyers are still defending the recent trend. However, Bitcoin remains below the 200-day SMA at $81,464, indicating the broader trend is still under pressure unless the price reclaims that long-term resistance level. Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI stands at 44.99, placing Bitcoin in neutral territory. This suggests momentum is neither oversold nor overbought, reflecting a lack of strong conviction from either bulls or bears. The post This Bitcoin’s scary timing could send BTC crashing to $41,000 appeared first on Finbold.

Integrity note · Xela does not rewrite or paraphrase article content. The excerpt above is the source publication's own words, sanitized for display. For the full piece — including any quotes, charts, or images — read it at Finbold. Xela's rewritten version is off for this story, so there's no editorial angle attached — you're getting the source's reporting unfiltered. When the rewrite is on, we add a What this means block underneath with the operator/trader takeaway.

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Bitcoin stabilizes near $63,000, but reclaiming $64,000 is the real test Bitcoin is stabilizing near $63,100 after buyers defended the lower part of its recent range. That is constructive, but it is not yet a confirmed recovery. BTC must first overcome resistance near $63,175-$63,270, while reclaiming and holding $64,000-$64,095 remains the more important test. Key takeaways for Bitcoin traders and investors Current position: BTC is holding above the previous month’s lower value boundary near $62,380. Immediate resistance: Buyers need to clear $63,130-$63,175, followed by $63,247-$63,270. Main recovery test: A sustained reclaim of $64,000-$64,095 would carry much more weight than a temporary bounce near $63,000. Major support: The broader $62,380-$62,535 region remains the most important defended zone. Bullish confirmation: Repeated closes, consolidation or a successful retest above $64,095 would show that Bitcoin is beginning to establish higher accepted value. Data note: The latest daily, four-hour and one-hour candles were incomplete when this analysis was prepared. Exchange-specific Bitcoin prices may also differ slightly. I'm also closely monitoring the digital asset space after , putting immediate pressure on lower order-flow shelves as bulls fight to defend structural trendlines. Regulatory headwinds also resurfaced as the , injecting fresh institutional hesitation into active trading books. Meanwhile, broader risk sentiment showed divergence across asset classes as , underscoring rotational breadth away from mega-cap tech into small-cap momentum. Macro headwinds and geopolitical posturing remain front and center following headline chatter that , all while monetary policy uncertainty lingers after amidst baseline model variances. Why Bitcoin’s stabilization is constructive but incomplete Bitcoin recently fell to approximately $62,535, where the decline attracted meaningful buying. Price subsequently recovered toward $63,100, strengthening the case that buyers are willing to defend the lower part of the previous month’s trading range. What stands out to me, however, is how little upward progress followed that buying. Several periods showed positive buying pressure, but BTC remained concentrated around $63,050 and repeatedly struggled to extend beyond $63,150-$63,175. In simple terms, buyers have shown that they can slow the decline, but they have not yet shown that they can move Bitcoin into a clearly higher trading range. This is the difference between stabilization and recovery: Stabilization means sellers are no longer pushing price lower with the same ease. Recovery means buyers are lifting price, holding above resistance and shifting the market’s most active trading area higher. Bitcoin has shown the first condition. The second still needs confirmation. Why $62,380 and $64,095 matter The previous month’s value area provides a useful map of where most Bitcoin trading took place: Value Area Low near $62,380: The lower boundary of the previous month’s heavily traded range. Point of Control near $64,095: The price that attracted the most trading activity during the month. Value Area High near $65,050: The upper boundary of the previous month’s accepted range. BTC is currently about $720 above the monthly Value Area Low, but almost $1,000 below the monthly Point of Control. Holding above $62,380 tells us that demand inside the previous month’s range has not completely failed. Remaining below $64,095 tells us that buyers have not regained control of the broader value structure. This is also why $64,095 may be more important than $64,000 itself. The round number attracts attention, but $64,095 represents the previous month’s busiest price area. A brief move above $64,000 could still become another failed breakout. Holding above $64,095 would provide stronger evidence that the market is accepting higher prices again. As discussed in our previous analysis, Bitcoin’s created technical repair work for buyers. That repair is not complete simply because BTC has bounced from $62,535. Bitcoin support and resistance levels to watch What would strengthen the bullish Bitcoin scenario? Swing traders should have 3 key price levels: The Value Area Low (VAL), Point of Control (POC) and Value Area High (VAH) of the previous month. Together, these levels map the previous month’s main area of accepted trading: the VAL marks its lower boundary, the VAH its upper boundary, and the POC the price where the most volume traded. Traders watch them because holding inside the area suggests continued acceptance, while a sustained break outside it may signal that the market is searching for a new value zone. The first constructive step would be sustained trade above $63,175. Buyers would then need to clear and hold above $63,247-$63,270. That would improve the probability of a move toward $63,350 and, eventually, the much larger $64,000-$64,095 test. A more convincing recovery would include: Bitcoin reclaiming $64,000. Price moving above the monthly point of control near $64,095. A pullback successfully defending the reclaimed area. Trading activity beginning to concentrate above $64,095 rather than immediately slipping back below it. If that sequence develops, approximately $65,050 becomes the next major value-area objective. What this means: Acceptance is more than touching a level. It means price spends time above it, survives pullbacks and begins treating the higher area as support. What would weaken the stabilization attempt? Failure to hold $62,920-$62,800 would weaken the current short-term base and increase the probability of another test of $62,535. The more serious bearish development would be sustained trade below $62,380. That would place BTC outside the previous month’s accepted value area and suggest that the market may need to search for demand at lower prices. Traders should still distinguish between a brief move below $62,380 and genuine acceptance beneath it. Crypto markets can produce fast stop-runs through visible support before reversing. Repeated closes or continued trading below the level would carry more bearish significance than a momentary sweep. What Bitcoin traders may consider watching Different traders may use these levels in different ways, at their own discretion: Short-term breakout confirmation: Watch whether BTC can break above $63,175 and successfully retest it, with $63,247-$63,270 providing the next validation area. Support-zone reaction: If BTC returns to $62,380-$62,535, watch whether buyers defend it again or whether selling begins to hold below the zone. Broader recovery confirmation: Treat $64,000-$64,095 as the decisive recovery test instead of assuming that every bounce from $63,000 marks a durable bottom. Because Bitcoin trades continuously, weekend conditions can sometimes involve thinner liquidity and less reliable breakouts. Confirmation through time, repeated closes or a successful retest may therefore be more useful than reacting to the first price spike. What should Bitcoin traders watch next? Bitcoin has defended the lower part of the previous month’s value area, but the rebound still needs to prove itself. The immediate challenge is to move beyond $63,175 and $63,270. The much larger test remains $64,000-$64,095. A successful reclaim would indicate that Bitcoin is returning toward the center of the previous month’s accepted value rather than merely bouncing from support. Until that happens, Bitcoin may be stabilizing, but it is not yet showing a fully confirmed bullish recovery. This analysis presents conditional market scenarios and opinions (not promises) at investingLive.com, not a guarantee of future performance. Traders should consider volatility, position size and their own risk limits before acting. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

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