Trump's Quantum Push Wins Praise, But Experts Warn Bitcoin Isn't Ready

In brief Quantum industry leaders said Trump's executive orders could strengthen U.S. leadership in the sector. Researchers said the administration's timelines better reflect recent advances in quantum computing. Bitcoin faces growing pressure to prepare for a post-quantum future, but migration efforts remain in the early stages. President Donald Trump's executive orders accelerating the federal government's transition to post-quantum cryptography by 2031 are drawing support and criticism from researchers who say Washington is adjusting its plans to match a rapidly changing quantum landscape.The executive orders signed by Trump on Monday move the federal deadline for adopting post-quantum cryptography from 2035 to 2031 and come as governments, technology companies, and cryptocurrency developers increase efforts to prepare for future quantum threats."It's hard to predict a precise date for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer because there are still so many unknowns, but anywhere between three and 10 years is credible," Dr. Stefan Leichenauer, vice president of engineering and lead scientist at SandboxAQ, told Decrypt. "The important thing is that the consequences of a [cryptographically relevant quantum computer] are so dramatic that we need to be prepared for even the most aggressive predictions."At the same time, he warned that organizations may already be behind schedule in their efforts to migrate to post-quantum cryptography."We are moving fast on [post-quantum computing] migration, but given the long transition times for many systems, we are likely already behind schedule," Leichenauer said. "[Post-quantum computing] migration is a multi-year process, and a [cryptographically relevant quantum computer] is likely to appear before we finish."The executive orders should serve as "a wake-up call," he added, calling quantum security an urgent priority.According to Alex Pruden, CEO of quantum security firm Project Eleven, the White House's revised timeline was overdue."There have been a lot of rumblings about advances in quantum computing, and other countries have updated their timelines, most recently France," Pruden told Decrypt. "When this order came out, I guess my reaction was that's good, that's about time."Pruden said the 2028 target is ambitious but no longer implausible. Project Eleven estimates a 50% chance of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer by 2033, and a 10% chance by 2030."I think if you asked me that question two years ago, I would say there's a 0% chance," Pruden said. "Now I think there is a material chance."Paul Stimers, a partner at Holland & Knight and executive director of the Quantum Industry Coalition, said the executive orders reflect growing consensus that the timeline for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer is shrinking."Quantum industry roadmaps are beginning to converge around the 2028-2030 timeframe," Stimers told Decrypt. But he cautioned that public estimates may not capture classified quantum computing programs in the United States or abroad.He also pointed to a more immediate concern that adversaries are already collecting encrypted data in anticipation of future decryption capabilities.“Because adversaries are already stealing encrypted data and holding it until they can decrypt it with a cryptographically relevant quantum computer, the threat is immediate and the time to address it is now,” he said. “Migrating to post-quantum encryption and agile cybersecurity takes time. The cybersecurity [executive order] balances urgency with realism.”Stimers said coalition members have responded favorably to the executive orders, citing their focus on manufacturing, commercialization, deployment, and industry engagement alongside research. He also described the administration's post-quantum cybersecurity roadmap as ambitious but achievable.Not everyone viewed the executive orders as a sign that the government is getting ahead of the problem. Some critics on social media argued the urgency around post-quantum cryptography is long overdue because sensitive data is already being collected and stored with the expectation that future quantum computers could eventually decrypt it.Others, including quantum physicist Anastasia Marchenkova, said the administration's messaging around "quantum dominance" is helping raise awareness and attract investment, but could also create unrealistic expectations about how quickly the industry can deliver practical results.“Getting 'quantum' into the national conversation genuinely helps—budget, interest, new talent in the pipeline—and that's what moves us from research to commercialization and builds real picks-and-shovels businesses,” Marchenkova told Decrypt. “But readiness is boring and unglamorous: agility, migration, actually shipping the defense, not just hyping the offense of breaking encryption or building a quantum computer,” she said."If the deadlines slip—and some will—the vaporware crowd gets louder,” she added. “And now that there are public quantum companies, these announcements do move the market significantly, even though we are unsure what the long-term effects will be."Despite this concern, Marchenkova said there is nothing egregiously wrong with the executive orders."The 'how' is what's missing,” she said. “We now have several standardized post-quantum algorithms and real confusion about which to use where, and which is best. The order says 'migrate,' not 'here's how to choose.'"Christopher Tam, president and head of innovation at BTQ Technologies, said the administration's 2031 deadline for federal agencies to migrate high-value assets to post-quantum cryptography remains too slow given the pace of industry efforts and the potential risks posed by quantum computing."I would have made it more urgent," Tam told Decrypt, noting that companies, including Google, have already set 2029 targets for post-quantum migration. "It seems sort of odd that the federal government would lag behind industry by two years."Tam also questioned the narrow scope of the order, arguing that it focuses primarily on federal systems while leaving much of the financial sector and broader industrial base outside its immediate reach.At the same time, he said the administration deserves credit for pairing quantum computing and cybersecurity initiatives in separate but related executive orders."If there's advancements in quantum computing research and the successful development of which, then it carries with it the burden or risk of quantum cryptographic attacks," Tam said. "That's really why we saw these two executive orders go hand in hand."For cryptocurrencies, however, Tam said the challenge is more complicated. While regulators can influence banks and other financial institutions, decentralized networks such as Bitcoin cannot be directed through executive action."You can't issue an executive order for Bitcoin," he said. "There's no one who will respond to that."Bitcoin faces a coordination problemThe executive orders arrive as the cryptocurrency industry weighs how to transition to quantum-resistant security.In March, BTQ Technologies launched a Bitcoin test network based on the quantum-resistance proposal BIP-360. In April, developers published BIP-361, a proposal that would freeze Bitcoin held in vulnerable legacy addresses if owners fail to migrate to quantum-resistant alternatives, while the developers behind other networks like Stellar and Algorand published roadmaps for adopting quantum-resistant cryptography.Pruden said awareness of the issue has increased significantly over the past year, but progress toward implementing solutions remains limited, because, unlike many blockchain networks, Bitcoin has no foundation or governing body capable of directing a migration effort. As a result, any transition would require coordination among developers, miners, exchanges, custodians, and major holders."Awareness in people's minds is actually where it needs to be," Pruden said. "Now there's a question of what's being done."Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.