XRP plunges to $1.12 as rare oversold signal flashes

XRP continues to trade around $1.12, with technical indicators showing persistent pressure in the market. Despite the ongoing weak momentum, some analysts point to the reemergence of historically rare oversold signals—a development being closely monitored for its potential impact on XRP’s medium-term outlook. While the current trend remains cautious, the search for a new equilibrium has become a talking point among investors.Long-term structure and key levelsDip below 200-week average draws attentionMonthly RSI revisits rare territoryIndicators pointing to mixed signals Long-term structure and key levelsCrypto analyst EGRAG Crypto has reiterated his adherence to a long-term scenario for XRP. He argues that this framework aligns with overall market structure, liquidity patterns, price direction and wider macroeconomic factors. According to the analyst, monitoring these key structural elements is more important than reacting to short-term volatility.EGRAG Crypto emphasized that the long-term outlook for XRP remains intact, highlighting that support and resistance ranges are more decisive than short-term swings.In charts shared by the analyst, the $0.7770, $1.1600, and $1.6500 levels stand out as key reference points. These zones are seen as crucial for market participants watching to see if the recent correction is losing strength or if further movement is likely.Dip below 200-week average draws attentionAmong the most significant developments in recent weeks is XRP dropping below its 200-week simple moving average. In the past, this threshold has served as a critical benchmark for long-term trend analysis. Data shows that breaches like this have typically not been quickly reversed. Mini glossary: VWAP, or volume-weighted average price, is a technical indicator that calculates price based on both value and trading volume across a set period. Traders use it to gauge if price is strong or weak compared to the average cost zone.Historically, XRP has sometimes treaded sideways for extended periods after falling below this average, before making recoveries. The latest such instance began in 2022 and only broke in late 2024. As a result, some analysts are now focusing less on the depth of the drop and more on how long it could take for XRP to stage a comeback.Notable support zones include $0.97 from the January 2023 lows, $0.83 from the June 2022 floor, and $0.69, which aligns with the March 2020 bottom. Additionally, some technical analysts are watching the $0.77 area as a Fibonacci extension target.Monthly RSI revisits rare territoryAnother key topic in the XRP market is the rare signal emerging from the monthly RSI indicator. Observers note that XRP’s monthly RSI has reentered a deeply oversold reset zone—a move that has only happened four times in the past thirteen years. These rare readings previously appeared before the rally in 2017, during the reset in 2020, in the pressure phase of 2022, and now, again in 2026.Market watchers caution that this RSI signal, by itself, does not imply an imminent surge; historically, it tends to appear in periods where the market is fatigued.Analysts indicate that while this signal doesn’t automatically trigger a sharp recovery, it does prompt long-term investors to take a closer look at support regions and market structure. For a more optimistic scenario, XRP needs to hold its major supports and regain upper resistance levels.Indicators pointing to mixed signalsAccording to TradingView, XRP is around $1.1218 with a daily gain of 2.65 percent, yet the overall technical picture remains unclear. Composite summaries report 14 sell, 7 neutral, and 5 buy signals, leaving the general outlook neutral.On the oscillator front, there are signs that selling pressure may be easing. The RSI stands at 25.42, CCI at minus 137.62, and Stochastic RSI Fast at 9.04. However, the MACD remains negative at minus 0.07004, indicating the downtrend is not yet over.IndicatorLevelInterpretationRSI 1425.42Oversold zoneCCI 20-137.62Oversold signalMACD 12,26-0.07004Downtrend persistsMoving averages paint an even more challenging picture. XRP remains mostly below both short and long-term averages: the 10-day EMA is at $1.194, the 10-day SMA at $1.218, the 20-day EMA at $1.257, and the 50-day SMA at $1.362. On a longer timescale, the 200-day EMA and SMA stand at $1.622 and $1.610, respectively. Support is currently seen between $1.10 and $1.21, then at $1.097 and $0.811, with resistance at $1.499, $1.667, and $1.952.Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.