XRP Slides Below $1.40 as Smart Money Exits, ETP Inflows Reach $67.6M, Warren Targets Trust Charters

CoinOtagMay 194 min readSingle source

The gist

5-point summary · 1 min

The Smart Money Index crossed below its signal line, mirroring a late-April setup that preceded a roughly 7% drawdown.
The weekly Stoch RSI has also flashed a deathcross for the third time since the July 2025 all-time high, a signal that previously preceded corrections of about 50%.
Listed investment products tracking XRP attracted $67.6 million in inflows for the week ending May 15, while solana funds drew $55.1 million.
Japan's 30-year government bond yield punched above 4% in May 2026, the first time since the tenor was created in 1999, while the 10-year sits at multi-decade highs.
Immediate support sits at $1.3575, with deeper buyer interest expected at $1.3137 and the psychologically charged $1.27 level.

$1.40$67.6M$0.65$1.27$1.11$1.00

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XRP News Senator Elizabeth Warren has escalated her campaign against the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, arguing that nine national trust bank charters granted to crypto-focused firms, including Ripple, Coinbase, Circle, Paxos, BitGo, Fidelity, Crypto.com, Stripe, and Protego, violate the National Bank Act. In a letter dated May 18 to Comptroller Jonathan Gould, Warren contended these approvals let companies operate as de facto banks while sidestepping core safeguards. She flagged business plans involving non-fiduciary custody, payment facilitation, and stablecoin issuance under the GENIUS Act framework, warning of risks to consumer protection and the wider U.S. banking system from this regulatory pathway. On the technical front, XRP is hugging the lower boundary of a three-month rising channel after a coordinated exit by informed capital on May 17. The Smart Money Index crossed below its signal line, mirroring a late-April setup that preceded a roughly 7% drawdown. Compounding the weakness, the 20-day exponential moving average is on the verge of closing beneath the 50-day EMA, threatening the first bearish cross in months. With price sitting under 1% above channel support, a confirmed breakdown becomes the path of least resistance unless fresh on-chain demand materially absorbs the supply now being distributed by larger holders. A confirmed bear pennant breakdown on the three-day chart now projects an aggressive measured-move target near $0.65, roughly 52.5% below current levels. The breakdown took shape after XRP closed below the pennant's lower trendline at $1.40, capping a 12% slide over five sessions. The weekly Stoch RSI has also flashed a deathcross for the third time since the July 2025 all-time high, a signal that previously preceded corrections of about 50%. Buyers are expected to defend $1.27 aggressively, since a confirmed close beneath that floor opens the door to $1.11 and the psychological $1.00 handle next. Despite the bearish structure, capital flows tell a more nuanced story. Listed investment products tracking XRP attracted $67.6 million in inflows for the week ending May 15, while solana funds drew $55.1 million. The rotation came against a brutal backdrop for the majors, as bitcoin products bled $982 million and ethereum vehicles lost $249 million. The altcoin resilience extended beyond XRP and SOL, with TON, DOGE, and Chainlink products also recording inflows. The data suggests selective institutional positioning is intact even as broader risk appetite contracts, with XRP outperforming ether on a one-week basis. Macro pressure is also shaping the XRP narrative from an unexpected angle. Japan's 30-year government bond yield punched above 4% in May 2026, the first time since the tenor was created in 1999, while the 10-year sits at multi-decade highs. Japanese investors offloaded nearly $29.6 billion in U.S. Treasuries during the first quarter, the heaviest quarterly sale since 2022, as the Bank of Japan unwinds decades of ultra-loose policy. Analyst Catalina Castro framed XRP as a potential conduit for trapped cross-border liquidity should the yen carry trade fully reverse, pressing U.S. yields, mortgages, and credit conditions higher in a global feedback loop. Adding to the ecosystem momentum, Flare and D'CENT Wallet rolled out an integration that connects hardware wallets directly to XRP yield vaults using XRP Ledger signatures, without requiring a new chain, wallet, or gas token. Two institutional-grade vaults went live at launch: the Monarq vault, run by a FalconX-majority-owned asset manager, and the earnXRP vault curated by Clearstar. The launch coincided with the debut of the XRP Alliance, a coalition involving Flare, D'CENT, Doppler, Banxa, and Squid, aimed at positioning Flare as a programmable layer for XRP via FAssets and Smart Accounts — appealing to cold wallet users seeking yield without custody compromises. XRP trades near $1.36 with a 24-hour drop of about 0.44% and a market cap close to $84.3 billion, signaling fragile equilibrium inside a confirmed downtrend. Immediate support sits at $1.3575, with deeper buyer interest expected at $1.3137 and the psychologically charged $1.27 level. Resistance clusters at $1.3888, $1.4240, and $1.4703. The RSI at 41.81 is approaching oversold territory but has not yet capitulated, while the bearish MACD signal aligns with the broader bear market structure and ongoing distribution by whales. A reclaim of $1.4240 on rising candlestick volume would invalidate the breakdown thesis; failure to hold $1.27 unlocks the $1.11 leg lower.

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Bitcoin stabilizes near $63,000, but reclaiming $64,000 is the real test Bitcoin is stabilizing near $63,100 after buyers defended the lower part of its recent range. That is constructive, but it is not yet a confirmed recovery. BTC must first overcome resistance near $63,175-$63,270, while reclaiming and holding $64,000-$64,095 remains the more important test. Key takeaways for Bitcoin traders and investors Current position: BTC is holding above the previous month’s lower value boundary near $62,380. Immediate resistance: Buyers need to clear $63,130-$63,175, followed by $63,247-$63,270. Main recovery test: A sustained reclaim of $64,000-$64,095 would carry much more weight than a temporary bounce near $63,000. Major support: The broader $62,380-$62,535 region remains the most important defended zone. Bullish confirmation: Repeated closes, consolidation or a successful retest above $64,095 would show that Bitcoin is beginning to establish higher accepted value. Data note: The latest daily, four-hour and one-hour candles were incomplete when this analysis was prepared. Exchange-specific Bitcoin prices may also differ slightly. I'm also closely monitoring the digital asset space after , putting immediate pressure on lower order-flow shelves as bulls fight to defend structural trendlines. Regulatory headwinds also resurfaced as the , injecting fresh institutional hesitation into active trading books. Meanwhile, broader risk sentiment showed divergence across asset classes as , underscoring rotational breadth away from mega-cap tech into small-cap momentum. Macro headwinds and geopolitical posturing remain front and center following headline chatter that , all while monetary policy uncertainty lingers after amidst baseline model variances. Why Bitcoin’s stabilization is constructive but incomplete Bitcoin recently fell to approximately $62,535, where the decline attracted meaningful buying. Price subsequently recovered toward $63,100, strengthening the case that buyers are willing to defend the lower part of the previous month’s trading range. What stands out to me, however, is how little upward progress followed that buying. Several periods showed positive buying pressure, but BTC remained concentrated around $63,050 and repeatedly struggled to extend beyond $63,150-$63,175. In simple terms, buyers have shown that they can slow the decline, but they have not yet shown that they can move Bitcoin into a clearly higher trading range. This is the difference between stabilization and recovery: Stabilization means sellers are no longer pushing price lower with the same ease. Recovery means buyers are lifting price, holding above resistance and shifting the market’s most active trading area higher. Bitcoin has shown the first condition. The second still needs confirmation. Why $62,380 and $64,095 matter The previous month’s value area provides a useful map of where most Bitcoin trading took place: Value Area Low near $62,380: The lower boundary of the previous month’s heavily traded range. Point of Control near $64,095: The price that attracted the most trading activity during the month. Value Area High near $65,050: The upper boundary of the previous month’s accepted range. BTC is currently about $720 above the monthly Value Area Low, but almost $1,000 below the monthly Point of Control. Holding above $62,380 tells us that demand inside the previous month’s range has not completely failed. Remaining below $64,095 tells us that buyers have not regained control of the broader value structure. This is also why $64,095 may be more important than $64,000 itself. The round number attracts attention, but $64,095 represents the previous month’s busiest price area. A brief move above $64,000 could still become another failed breakout. Holding above $64,095 would provide stronger evidence that the market is accepting higher prices again. As discussed in our previous analysis, Bitcoin’s created technical repair work for buyers. That repair is not complete simply because BTC has bounced from $62,535. Bitcoin support and resistance levels to watch What would strengthen the bullish Bitcoin scenario? Swing traders should have 3 key price levels: The Value Area Low (VAL), Point of Control (POC) and Value Area High (VAH) of the previous month. Together, these levels map the previous month’s main area of accepted trading: the VAL marks its lower boundary, the VAH its upper boundary, and the POC the price where the most volume traded. Traders watch them because holding inside the area suggests continued acceptance, while a sustained break outside it may signal that the market is searching for a new value zone. The first constructive step would be sustained trade above $63,175. Buyers would then need to clear and hold above $63,247-$63,270. That would improve the probability of a move toward $63,350 and, eventually, the much larger $64,000-$64,095 test. A more convincing recovery would include: Bitcoin reclaiming $64,000. Price moving above the monthly point of control near $64,095. A pullback successfully defending the reclaimed area. Trading activity beginning to concentrate above $64,095 rather than immediately slipping back below it. If that sequence develops, approximately $65,050 becomes the next major value-area objective. What this means: Acceptance is more than touching a level. It means price spends time above it, survives pullbacks and begins treating the higher area as support. What would weaken the stabilization attempt? Failure to hold $62,920-$62,800 would weaken the current short-term base and increase the probability of another test of $62,535. The more serious bearish development would be sustained trade below $62,380. That would place BTC outside the previous month’s accepted value area and suggest that the market may need to search for demand at lower prices. Traders should still distinguish between a brief move below $62,380 and genuine acceptance beneath it. Crypto markets can produce fast stop-runs through visible support before reversing. Repeated closes or continued trading below the level would carry more bearish significance than a momentary sweep. What Bitcoin traders may consider watching Different traders may use these levels in different ways, at their own discretion: Short-term breakout confirmation: Watch whether BTC can break above $63,175 and successfully retest it, with $63,247-$63,270 providing the next validation area. Support-zone reaction: If BTC returns to $62,380-$62,535, watch whether buyers defend it again or whether selling begins to hold below the zone. Broader recovery confirmation: Treat $64,000-$64,095 as the decisive recovery test instead of assuming that every bounce from $63,000 marks a durable bottom. Because Bitcoin trades continuously, weekend conditions can sometimes involve thinner liquidity and less reliable breakouts. Confirmation through time, repeated closes or a successful retest may therefore be more useful than reacting to the first price spike. What should Bitcoin traders watch next? Bitcoin has defended the lower part of the previous month’s value area, but the rebound still needs to prove itself. The immediate challenge is to move beyond $63,175 and $63,270. The much larger test remains $64,000-$64,095. A successful reclaim would indicate that Bitcoin is returning toward the center of the previous month’s accepted value rather than merely bouncing from support. Until that happens, Bitcoin may be stabilizing, but it is not yet showing a fully confirmed bullish recovery. This analysis presents conditional market scenarios and opinions (not promises) at investingLive.com, not a guarantee of future performance. Traders should consider volatility, position size and their own risk limits before acting. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

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