Banks have never been this profitable

The five biggest banks in the US reported record earnings that exceeded even the rosiest of expectations yesterday, thanks to the AI boom and the trading volatility created by the war with Iran.JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup combined to report $49 billion in profits in the latest quarter. How did these wise Wall Street institutions flourish in Q2, while many people on Main Street struggled to afford gas and groceries?Trading profits: The $85 billion IPO from SpaceX brought bullish retail investors out in droves and netted the banks involved ~$500 million. The trading volatility around the repeated opening and closing of the Strait of Hormuz, and the back-and-forth on AI representing either a brighter future or the end of the world, also drove revenue for banks.Fees: No, not the $3 fee for using an ATM. The much higher ones that come from investment banking during a rush of mergers and acquisitions, along with deals for AI companies building out their infrastructure.Proceed with cautionJPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon tempered excitement during the bank’s earnings call. While he lauded the “resiliency” of the US economy, saying business conditions are nearly “as good as it gets,” Dimon also warned: “Several risks are shifting below the surface like tectonic plates, including geopolitical tensions and wars, sticky inflation, large global fiscal deficits, and elevated asset prices.” He added, “We cannot predict how these forces will ultimately play out.”Zoom out: During Goldman Sachs’s earnings call, ⁠CEO David Solomon said the banking industry “is in the middle of an AI capex super ​cycle” due to AI infrastructure buildouts. Then there are the AI IPOs in the offing: Anthropic’s will be led by Goldman and Morgan Stanley, while OpenAI is still deciding which banks will be involved.—DL